Nearly half of voters say they view the midterm elections as an opportunity to criticize President Donald Trump’s performance, according to early results from the NBC News exit poll.
Forty-three percent said one reason for their vote was to express opposition to Trump — a far higher figure than the proportion who said the same in the 2018 midterm elections during his first term.
Early results show that Trump’s midterm campaign blitz of Republican candidates in recent weeks has done little to improve his approval rating.
A major frustration cited by voters? The economy.
Most voters said inflation was causing hardship for their families, with the affordability of gas, food and utilities a major concern. Voters blamed Trump for high prices and said his policies were making the economy worse.
The poll was taken as voters left polling stations across the United States on Election Day. The results also include in-depth telephone, mail and online interviews with people who voted early or by mail.
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Trump’s declining job approval rating
According to the poll, 38% of voters said they approved of Trump’s performance. This is significantly less than during his first midterm election in 2018 (when 45% of voters approved of his performance).
Trump’s dismal approval ratings also fell in Senate battleground states.
Majorities of Senate voters in Georgia, Ohio, Michigan and Texas all said they disapproved of how Trump had handled his job – also up from 2018.
Voters have negative views of both parties
Voters expressed more unfavorable than favorable opinions of the Republican and Democratic parties, according to the poll. And nearly one in five voters said they had no favorable opinion of either party, at least 5 percentage points more than the proportion who said so in the last two midterm elections.
Fifty-four percent of voters said Tuesday they have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party, while 46 percent have a favorable opinion. For the Republican Party, 59% of voters today said they had unfavorable views, and 41% said they had favorable views. Voters expressed more unfavorable opinions of both parties than in the last two midterms.
Voters were more likely to say the Democratic Party was better at handling several important issues than the Republican Party, including the economy, foreign policy, health care, government corruption and policies regarding transgender people. The GOP held an advantage on immigration.
On policies related to AI and taxes, voters were divided.
Economic pessimism
The economy — once Trump’s most important issue — is no longer viewed positively by voters, according to the poll.
An overwhelming majority said the country’s economy was in poor shape (75%) – and 65% said Trump’s policies had made economic conditions in the United States worse. About half of voters who cast ballots said the cost of living was crucial to their vote. That’s the opposite of how voters viewed the economy in 2018 — a sweeping election for Democrats in Trump’s first term. That year, 68% of voters said the economy was in good health.
Voters are motivated by the economy
Voters considered the economy the most important issue facing the country today (39%), followed by the state of democracy (32%), according to the poll. They expressed serious concerns about gas, grocery and utility prices, blaming Trump for affordability problems.
Forty-four percent of voters said their finances are worse today than they were two years ago, when Trump returned to office. Only 18% say they are in a better situation. These numbers are consistent with how voters characterized their finances in the 2022 midterm elections, but far worse than in Trump’s first midterm election in 2018.
At the heart of voters’ financial concerns: the cost of living. Top issues include the cost of gasoline and diesel (87% say they are “very” or “somewhat” concerned), food and groceries (88% concerned), utilities (86%) and health care (85%). Overall, just under 8 in 10 voters said inflation was causing hardship for their families.
More than half (65%) say Trump’s policies have made the economy worse; 62% said it was responsible for high prices.
Groups we monitor closely throughout the night
We’ll be closely watching several groups that helped propel Trump to victory in 2024 — but with a particular focus on Latino voters and voters under 30.
After falling in every national election since 2018, the share of Latino voters who identify as Democrats increased this year to 43%, up from 39% in 2024, according to the poll.
Thirty-one percent of Latino voters identified as independent, a similar proportion to previous years. The share of Latino voters identifying as independent decreased slightly, from 32% to 30%. The Republican share also decreased slightly, from 29% in 2024 to 27%.
The results ended the steady erosion of Democrats’ advantage among Latino voters in party identification, which narrowed from 33 points in 2018 to 10 points in 2024. This year, Democrats hold a 16-point advantage.
Young voters also appear to be returning to the Democratic Party after Trump narrowed their margin in the 2024 presidential election.
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