In recent days, in contrast to an election campaign characterized by its bitterness and close personal attacks, current Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of national unity and rapprochement with the opposition bloc that edged out his ruling coalition in October’s elections.
On Saturday, the same day that Israeli President Isaac Herzog tasked former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot with forming a government capable of commanding the Knesset, Netanyahu posted a video on his social media account saying Israel would face a real risk of civil war if a government was established with the support of Arab parties he accused of wanting to “eliminate the State of Israel.”
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Two days later, Netanyahu returned to the theme of existential threat in another video, calling on the leaders of the more successful bloc to recognize the “needs of the moment” and join, under his leadership, a single unified government that would also include the ultra-Orthodox parties, at least one of which is said to be in talks with Eisenkot, as well as the prime minister’s controversial far-right allies, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir.
“It’s all a game right now. It’s influence, it’s one-upmanship, it’s psychological operations, it’s manipulation, it’s counterattack,” former Israeli government advisor Daniel Levy said of the invariably long and complex negotiations that take place before the establishment of a government:
Currently, as the new Knesset is sworn in on Tuesday, speculation is focused on the role of ultra-Orthodox, or haredi, parties, which have traditionally offered support to Netanyahu in exchange for measures protecting their young male yeshiva students from military conscription, in defiance of a June 2024 Super Court ruling.
Strategy
Nonetheless, regardless of the past political cover provided to its members by Netanyahu, some suggest that one of the ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism (UTJ) – which has refused to endorse Netanyahu’s choice to build a government through the president – is preparing to fall in line behind Eisenkot, with the objections of one of the main opposition figures, Avigdor Lieberman, apparently mollified in the face of partnering with one of the Arab parties or maintaining power of Lieberman. the archenemy, Netanyahu and the prospect of new elections.
“‘It’s a political strategy, that’s all,’ said Netanyahu’s former collaborator, Israeli pollster Mitchell Barak, from Jerusalem. “But he is trading from a weakened position. With the UTJ, Eisenkot has 67 seats,” he said of the numbers needed to secure a working-class majority in the 120-seat Knesset, “so of course Netanyahu is going to do everything he can to strengthen his bloc; Barak said of the negotiations seen by many as crucial to Netanyahu’s personal future.
Netanyahu faces a number of challenges that directly affect both his political legacy and his personal freedom, over which he will lose influence if Eisenkot succeeds him.
First, there are the multiple corruption charges for which he is currently on trial and, despite his claims of innocence, for which he has already sent a preemptive petition to the country’s president and his former political rival, Isaac Herzog. Second, and more pressing, is the question of his and his government’s culpability in the alleged failures preceding the October 7 Hamas-led attack that triggered Israel’s genocide on Gaza and the multiple strikes and attacks launched by Israel’s non-regional neighbors in the years that followed.
New Knesset, new danger
Many of the new lawmakers sworn in Tuesday, including bereaved family members, reservists, advocates for the nearly 250 Israelis captured that day and Eisenkot himself, who lost a son and two nephews in the genocide that followed, are all directly linked to Oct. 7 and the wars that followed, together creating a chamber where feelings about the Oct. 7 attack and guilt for his lies are meant to surface. surface.
In particular, attention will likely focus heavily on Netanyahu himself, including alleged miscalculations before the attack, accounts of numerous missed warnings and who was later accused of prolonging the war or sacrificing the welfare of captives for his own political ends. One of the opposition’s main goals for the first day of parliamentary work is expected to be the installation of Matan Kahana, a member of Eisenkot’s Yashar (“straight”) party and a staunch advocate of a state investigation into Netanyahu and the government’s failures before the Hamas-led attack.
“The fact that so many people are directly linked to October 7 will raise the temperature, but it has become so politicized that a victory for one side automatically becomes a loss for the other. So the bereaved family on the right may say we need to increase our militarism in honor of my son, and the bereaved family in the center says we need to enlist more people.
“Netanyahu can try to influence this, but for the first time in a long time he seems a little lost,” said Israeli political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg.
However, even if Netanyahu is lost or his claims of impending civil war or destruction at the hands of regional adversaries are true, ultimately his political and potentially personal destiny now rests with an opposition that outnumbers his own and an unstable Knesset eager to comb through the mistakes of the past.
“There is no appetite on the other side to join Netanyahu in forming a unity government,” Levy said.
“The only real circumstances in which this will happen is if he can create a security emergency,” he said after a weekend in which the British press reported daily phone calls from Netanyahu to the Trump administration calling for a resumption of war against Iran.
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