NATO is developing defense plans that include strikes deep inside Russia if Moscow attacks alliance territory, targeting bases, supply networks and industrial facilities supporting an invasion.
The approach, developed under the leadership of NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, US General Alexus Grynkewich, reflects lessons from Russia’s war against Ukraine: According to the Wall Street Journal, stopping the advance of troops requires disrupting the military system that underpins them.
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For decades, European defense planning focused on preventing Soviet or Russian forces from advancing after crossing NATO borders. Alliance strategists now consider this approach insufficient.
Polish Major General Ireneusz Nowak told the Journal that defense also requires the ability to fight back.
In the event of a conflict with Russia, we would certainly want to strike its military-industrial base, he said, describing precision strikes deep within Russian territory as a deterrent.
Nowak argued that if Ukraine had possessed this capability at the start of the invasion, the war would not have devolved into positional combat resembling World War I.
The plans envision attacks about 150 kilometers (93 miles) thousands of miles behind the front line, using precision missiles and less expensive weapons such as drones, the Journal reported.
Potential targets extend beyond airfields and military bases to industrial facilities, critical infrastructure and raw material resources supporting Russia’s war effort. The aim is to make these strikes an automatic part of NATO’s response to a Russian attack.
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Grynkewich presented this approach at a recent security conference in Warsaw as part of what he called his “victory theory.”
NATO forces should first stop the first wave of attack, then undermine the enemy’s ability to sustain subsequent operations. If the offensive continued, the alliance would strike both the attacking forces and the networks that supply, support, and direct them.
The strategy does not envisage an escalation towards nuclear weapons. NATO also organized its first symposium on deep strikes in June.
Precision weapons are central to this approach, including established systems such as Tomahawk cruise missiles and ATACMS ballistic missiles, as well as weapons still under development.
European countries are seeking to increase their stockpiles of Storm Shadow, SCALP and Taurus cruise missiles while developing additional systems.
Fabian Hoffmann, a senior researcher at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies, told the newspaper that 20 European manufacturers were pursuing at least 48 projects to develop inexpensive cruise missiles, but not all would come to fruition.
Ukraine has increasingly adopted a similar approach, striking military and economic targets in Russia with longer-range weapons, including domestically developed Flamingo cruise missiles, the report said.
Analysts warned that military planning alone would not guarantee political approval for strikes.
Nico Lange, a former senior German Defense Ministry official, told the Journal that a gap remains between military plans that incorporate offensive action to defend against Russia and political views that equate defense primarily with barriers or a “wall of drones.”
The unresolved question, the report said, is whether European leaders would authorize operations that their military planners consider necessary to stop and defeat an attack.
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