October 9, 2026, 11:33 a.m. ET
Ten days before early voting begins in Texas for the midterm elections, a new poll suggests momentum could shift back in favor of Republicans in two key races.
A new UMass Lowell/YouGov poll, released Oct. 8, shows Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico tied at 45 percent, with 7 percent undecided.
“The last time Democrats won a U.S. Senate race in Texas, Ken Paxton didn’t have a law degree yet and James Talarico wasn’t even born. With a tied race, anything can happen between now and the election,” said John Cluverius, director of polling research for the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion.
Talarico led Paxton in most polls in September and October, sometimes by margins outside the poll’s error.
It remains to be seen whether Trump’s visits to the Lone Star State had an impact on the polls, or whether Talarico’s absence for about two weeks from the campaign trail had an impact.
Here’s what the poll found about the Senate and gubernatorial elections, as early voting begins October 19.
Ken Paxton and James Talarico deadlocked in Texas Senate race
The poll surveyed 850 likely Texas voters Sept. 18-28 and has an adjusted margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.
The poll finds Paxton leading among voters over 65, 58 to 38 percent, while Talarico leads among younger voters, ages 18 to 29, 49 to 37 percent. Hispanic and black voters also split in favor of Talarico over Paxton, 48% to 42% and 67% to 17%, respectively.
The poll measured Talarico’s preference – 42% favorable, 41% unfavorable – but did not ask about Paxton’s.
Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa in Texas governor race
The poll showed Gov. Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa statistically tied, with the governor ahead 48% to 44%, within the poll’s margin of error.
The poll also showed that 6% of voters are still undecided and 1% said they would not vote.
Recent polls in the Texas U.S. Senate race
Here’s what the September and October polls show:
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional Texas newspapers, based in Austin. Do you have a tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
Gn headline
