New York gubernatorial race neck and neck as Kathy Hochul, Bruce Blakeman set to debate: poll

Gov. Kathy Hochul and Bruce Blakeman are nearly neck and neck as they head into the only debate of the gubernatorial election Tuesday, according to a stunning new poll.

Democrat Hochul leads the Nassau Republican executive 47% to 44%, according to a Pollfinity survey released Tuesday.

The poll found that about 6% of voters were undecided, while 3% were considering voting for others.

When undecided voters were asked which way they leaned, the race dispersed slightly, but just barely – with the candidates sitting within 4 points of each other, between 48% and 44%.

The poll surveyed 499 New Yorkers between October 8 and 12 and bucks trends other pollsters have seen in recent weeks, putting Hochul with a lead of about 10 points over Blakeman.

Hochul leads Blakeman by 12 points – 52% to 40%, with 8% undecided – in an Oct. 8 poll of 900 voters conducted by Emerson College and PIX 11.

But a few days earlier, at the end of September, a University of Siena poll placed the candidates 9 points apart from each other, with Hochul leading by 50 to 40 percent.

The independent polling company Pollfinity was launched in 2026 by Lars Mapstead, a California libertarian who ran for Congress in 2026 but was defeated by a wide range of opponents. He was also one of several Libertarians running for president in 2024.

The latest poll findings show Blakeman has made serious gains since June, when Hochul led by 10 points, between 50 and 40 percent.

His approval ratings were also low in the latest poll – just 43%, compared to 53% who disapproved of his performance since taking office in 2022.