I have no explanation for the last two weeks. But I will use a series of unexpected successes to warn anyone who ever wakes up in the middle of a hot streak.
In week 8, I went 13-1 in the direct selection exercise only. (More picks against the spread, for reasons I explained previously.) For Week 9, I finished 14-1.
That makes it 27-2 over two weeks. (Which translates to 87-48-1 for the year, which doesn’t sound as good as “27-2.”)
Now let’s move on to the warning, especially to everyone who has played or will play in the sport. The worst thing you can do is get lucky. Because you will think that you have suddenly become good.
Then you’ll let it ride until your luck runs out. This is where it gets dangerous. Because you will fool yourself into thinking that this is just a temporary setback, that your secret formula for picking winners remains viable, and that you will continue your losses. You’ll keep digging that hole, convinced that it’s only a matter of time before your sudden genius returns.
Eventually, you will find yourself in an untenable financial situation.
This is how it happens for many players. They don’t start out losing and keep losing. They earn enough to think they know more than they do, when in reality no one knows anything. And then the wheels come off. And then they desperately want to put the wheels back in place.
Case in point: Last week, someone who has been around the NFL for over 30 years expressed astonishment that the Cowboys were only favored by 4.5 points against the Colts. With the Colts in disarray due to several trades and ready to make even more trades, the Cowboys would win easily. It was, the person said, a “sure thing.”
Final score? Cowboys 27, Colts 23.
There’s nothing sure about the game. Well, there is. If you ever let yourself believe that you are smarter than the house and you don’t get out of there in time, it is certain that you will end up declaring bankruptcy.
Commanders at Giants (Thursday night)
Can Dan Quinn and company find another way to screw things up at a key moment?
Giants 23, Commanders 17.
Patriots vs. Lions (Germany)
This is a time of desperation for New England, as it was when they found a way to beat the Bills.
Patriots 23, Lions 20.
Chefs at Falcons
The Falcons are capable of winning every game. It’s simply impossible to know when this version of the team will appear.
Chiefs 27, Falcons 17.
Texans at Browns
Time is running out for Houston. And the Browns appear to be in the early stages of a comeback.
Texans 20, Browns 16.
Vikings at Packers
One of the craziest weeks in Vikings history ended on a high note, thanks to the Packers’ inability to move the ball effectively.
Vikings 24, Packers 20.
Dolphins at Colts
With the uncertainty surrounding the trade deadline having passed, the Colts can return their focus to trying to win football games.
Colts 17, Dolphins 7.
Panthers at Saints
If the Saints can muster a full 60 minutes, they could be very dangerous.
Saints 27, Panthers 20.
Invoices at Jets
The Bills have a tough six-game stretch coming up; they know not to fall victim to a trap game.
Bills 30, Jets 17.
Jaguars at Titans
Liam Coen and Robert Saleh reunite. One has an elite roster. This is not the case.
Jaguars 24, Titans 13.
Rams among the Cardinals
The Cardinals still don’t know how to win a home game.
Rams 17, Cardinals 13.
Seahawks vs. Raiders
It will take some time for Fernando Mendoza to be fully operational.
Seahawks 16, Raiders 9.
49ers at the Cowboys
If it wasn’t already clear that the Cowboys are far from elite, it will be.
49ers, 31, Cowboys 20.
Steelers vs. Bengals
Joe Burrow’s MVP case gets even stronger with a primetime win.
Bengals 27, Steelers 23.
Chargers at Ravens
Jacoby Brissett’s work is simple. Win a few winnable games so the team will still be relevant when Lamar Jackson returns.
Ravens 14, Chargers 6.
Gn sports
