NFL Week 6 Straight, Against the Spread, and Survivor Pool Picks

For the gaming nerds, here are my Week 6 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, and do not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I will rate a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Seahawks (-2.5) at Broncos: These two defenses were considered among the best in the NFL entering the season. The Seahawks D have (for the most part) lived up to expectations thus far. The Broncos are doing well. Bo Nix looks like exactly the type of quarterback that Seattle’s defense puts through hell for 60 minutes.

Texans at Jaguars (-2.5): I like the advantage the Jaguars have of already being in London, while the Texans have to fly out this week.

Panthers (-3.5) at Eagles: The Eagles offense has been putrid through the first five weeks of the season:

Is it bad? This looks bad.

You’d think they probably played good defense, right? Well, the Jags defense is good. Otherwise, they faced objectively bad defenses from the Commanders and Titans, a mediocre Bears defense, and a Rams defense that was missing Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, and Jaylen Watson.

The Panthers defense also stinks a bit, and they will be missing both starting corners in Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson. It doesn’t matter. Through the first five weeks of the season, the Eagles have had nothing on the offensive side of the ball. No identity, nothing to hold on to, and no real clue that they’re about to find out.

Oh, and now Jalen Hurts is out.

Jets at Patriots (-7): The Pats have started to figure things out, with an impressive Week 4 road win at Buffalo and a blowout of the Raiders in Week 5. They should be able to handle the Jets, who they swept last season by a combined score of 69-24.

Steelers (-2.5) at Buccaneers: The Steelers have 22 consecutive undefeated seasons. They also haven’t won a playoff game in 10 years. People who don’t think the Eagles should reset must like what the Steelers are doing.

Ravens (-4) at Browns: The Browns looked feisty for a while…then they lost at home to the Jets. I guess I like the Ravens here, whether Lamar Jackson plays or not, but not in Pose 4.

Bears (-1.5) at Falcons: Ugh. I like the Falcons if Michael Penix can play. I definitely won’t do it if he can’t play. And at the moment, we don’t know if he will play, even if the trend is “likely to play”. I like the value of getting 1.5 points if he plays, so let’s do it.

Titans at Colts (-7): The only time the Titans didn’t look like the worst team in the NFL was when they played the Eagles.

Saints (-1.5) at Giants: None of these teams are good, but the Giants are better and they’re at home. If they win this game, I can comfortably say they will be the worst 4-1-1 team in NFL history.

Cardinals at Rams (-12.5): Following two articles calling the Eagles sellers at the trade deadline (the original here, and what they could get in exchange for trade candidates here), my various timelines have been flooded with people pointing out that the Eagles have the same record as the Rams, and that “the Eagles are two games away from being 4-1.”

I think the following chart from Deniz Selman does a good job of explaining why, after five games, the Eagles’ hopes of contending for a Super Bowl aren’t anywhere close to the Rams’ hopes.

Basically, the teams on the left side of the diagonal line have better records than they have this season. Teams to the right of the diagonal line are better than their records might indicate. As Deniz points out, the Eagles are lucky to be 2-3. And certainly, the Rams have surpassed their 2-3 record.

Certainly, it would be laughable if the Eagles were currently 12.5-point favorites over anyone, as the Rams are this week. Hell, the Eagles are currently the underdogs on a team that hasn’t had a winning record since the 2017 season (46-91 over that span), and is missing its two best cornerbacks, a group of offensive linemen, and a starting edge defender.

Anyway, give me the Rams, and if you’re still alive in your survivor pool, the Rams are a pretty easy choice.

Bills (-4.5) for the Raiders: The Raiders were a fun story early in the season, but they lost to the Chiefs in Week 4 and were beaten by the Patriots in Week 5. They’re going to get beaten again by the Bills.

Chargers at the Chiefs (-8.5): The remaining winless teams are the Dolphins, Titans and Chargers. There are also only three undefeated teams left. They are the Vikings, 49ers and Chiefs.

Andy Reid is 22-5 the week after a bye, although he has lost two of his last three after the bye. Still, the Chiefs should remain undefeated and the Chargers should remain winless.

Cowboys at Packers (-1.5): I really don’t like either of these two teams. The Cowboys can’t stop anyone, and the Packers rushing offense is historically bad so far this season. Something has to give. I at least trust the Cowboys to put points on the board.

Commanders at 49ers (-7.5): The 49ers are the best team in football right now. Commanders are not.

BYE: Lions, Vikings, Bengals, Dolphins.

Survivor’s Choice ☠️

1. Week 1: Chargers ☠️
2. Week 2: 49ers
3. Week 3: Chefs
4. Week 4: Ravens
5. Week 5: Cowboys ☠️

OK, now I’m done.