
Niall Ferguson: Why Europe is Burning
“The most French thing I’ve ever seen“, a couple was sipping wine in an outdoor café, probably discussing Jean-Paul Sartre, while a fire started by demonstrators raged on the other side of the boulevard. Unfortunately, the video posted on X is from three years ago, but it was fitting for the moment last week.
As their national anthem contains the phrase “To arms, citizens!“, do not be surprised if, quite regularly, young French people decide to recreate revolutionary scenes. As I write, French schools are burning– set on fire by high school students who say they want more investment in education but who, for some reason, think they can achieve it by filling the streets with trash, setting them on fire, waving Palestinian flags, and clashing with the police. The latest reincarnations of sans-culottes came out in force, although, as in 1968, their outfits are quite chic. As a cynical friend observed, what the first communion is for a young Roman Catholic, therefore the first demonstration is for a young Parisian: a rite of passage.
And yet, it’s not just France. The children are outside in the streets of Madridthey, too, are furious (they claim) about the growing housing crisis. In Brussels the burning issue is government budget cuts.
So what is happening in Europe?
No, I don’t think this is the start of Eurozone crisis 2.0. Those with fond memories will recall that the first Eurozone crisis began in 2009 with a Greek debt crisis that spread to other countries. As we will see, the recent wave of protests has indeed coincided with a French debt crisis that also threatens to spread to other members of the Eurozone. However, if the European Central Bank (ECB) has learned anything from the events of 2011-2012, it is that it must be prepared to “do whatever it takes to preserve the euro”:the immortal words ” from ECB President Mario Draghi in July 2012. If French bond yields rise much more – say by another 100 basis points (1%) – then the ECB has the tools to intervene and stabilize the market.
Gn world