It was a tale of two election nights for predictive markets.
Kalshi and Polymarket, the two dominant platforms, predicted the Democrats’ resounding victories in the midterms – and well ahead of much of the pundit class – asserting to their supporters their value as forecasting tools. But the Democratic wave could also mark the start of an uncomfortable new era of corporate oversight in Washington.
President Donald Trump’s regulators have kissed prediction markets over the past two years, paving the way for them to rapidly expand their businesses with a frenzy of new bets on politics, sports and stocks. Now Democrats are preparing for an aggressive surveillance regime that is expected to put the startup industry under intense pressure from Capitol Hill.
“People are rightly concerned about dangerous betting on elections, war, assassinations, terrorism and government actions that run counter to the public interest,” the senator said. Jeff Merkley an Oregon Democrat and longtime critic of the markets, told POLITICO in a statement. “We need to put a stop to this gambling, and with Democrats regaining control of Congress, now is the time to take long-overdue legislative action.” »
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