Nuclear war and malicious use of AI threaten end of humanity by 2100, Lancet assessment finds | Global Health

Humanity could become extinct by 2100 due to malicious use of AI or nuclear conflict, according to a new global risk assessment.

They top a list of 17 major threats to human health over the next 75 years, which also include cuts in aid spending by rich countries, the climate crisis and child malnutrition.

Experts behind the Lancet Commission on Global Health Threats in the 21st Century said all threats interact, meaning they must be addressed together – but stressed there was “a realistic path to action” on each.

“Decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and well-being of the next generation,” said Professor Christopher Murray, commission co-chair and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

To create its list, the commission modeled the number of healthy years that could be lost to illness, disability or premature death from each threat, based on current trajectories – a measure known as disability-adjusted life years (Dalys).

“Malicious use of AI, including biological weapons, and nuclear conflicts accompanied by nuclear famine carry extinction risks over the next 75 years,” the report said, adding that while their probability remains low, they have the potential to end humanity in the event of a nuclear conflict by injecting enough particles into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight and cause famine, or via biological weapons created by AI. A Lancet editorial, published alongside the report, warned: “The scale of the damage, if realized, would inflict an apocalypse on humanity. »

Other risks likely to cause more than a billion cumulative Dalys, and therefore considered “major catastrophic threats”, include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, child malnutrition and climate breakdown, as well as conventional conflicts, decline in foreign aid, high alcohol consumption, high blood pressure, income inequality, low education levels, natural pandemics, obesity, poor mental health, smoking and aging in poor health.

To make the list, threats had to not only result in the potential loss of a high number of healthy years, but also offer potential solutions.

Ibrahim Abubakar, a member of the commission and professor of infectious disease epidemiology at UCL, said: “We’re not starting from a point of view like ‘oh look, we want to scare you, we have which, if you take action, you can really make a difference.”

Action to limit global warming to around 1.8°C (3.2°F) rather than letting it reach 4.4°C could prevent the loss of 1.89 billion years of healthy life, according to the report, which models best- and worst-case scenarios for each threat.

In higher income regions, non-communicable diseases such as obesity and poor mental health were the dominant threats, while in lower income regions, health loss was due to problems such as low education levels.

Many major donor countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom, have announced significant reductions in aid spending over the past year. The potential collapse or sharp reduction in international health aid could generate up to 1.5 billion Dalys before 2100, according to the commission, almost 70% of which would go to sub-Saharan Africa. The region is also the most affected by child malnutrition.

The commission was made up of 35 experts and its findings will be shared on Sunday at the World Health Summit in Berlin, Germany. Their assessment will be updated annually to reassess the 17 identified threats, incorporating new data and any emerging dangers.

The authors urged leaders to address risks before they escalate into crises, including by investing in technological innovations and strengthening health systems.

“We started this process three years ago, thinking there were three big threats: conflict, climate and pandemics,” Murray said. “There are many more threats we need to worry about, and governments need to really dedicate funds and personnel to the task of anticipating, preventing, and preparing for this more diverse set of threats.” »