October inflation data, released on Tuesday, is expected to show that inflation has eased somewhat from September’s high levels, but remains stable.
Economists polled by Bloomberg expect the consumer price index to rise 0.3% in October from the previous month, a much slower pace than September’s 0.6% gain. Core inflation, which does not take into account volatile food and energy prices, is expected to increase by 0.2%, compared to 0.3% a month earlier.
The October report is unlikely to include annual inflation figures, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to release full October 2025 data due to the government shutdown last year. But some economists estimate that inflation has accelerated slightly from year to year.
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Rising energy prices weighed heavily on the September reportbut October’s price increases seem less spectacular.
“We expect a more subdued CPI in October after two consecutive disappointing 0.3% hikes in the policy rate,” Dave Sloan, senior North America economist at Continuum Economics, wrote in a note. “Gasoline prices saw only a marginal increase during the month, and we expect the overall CPI to also increase by 0.2%.”
Inflation for many goods likely declined last month as pricing pressures eased, although goods inflation has been strong in recent months due to intense demand for artificial intelligence and rising vehicle prices, Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau wrote in a note. Services inflation is likely persistent due to factors such as rising airline ticket prices, he added.
“Even though we expect a moderation in the monthly core CPI, we view risks as tilted to the upside,” the note said. “The two biggest sources of uncertainty are used cars and health insurance.”
Tuesday’s inflation data is the Federal Reserve’s final look at the CPI before its Dec. 8-9 meeting, although it will again look at inflation data via its preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, later this month.
With a resilient labor marketand even showing signs of acceleration, traders currently estimate there is an 83% chance the central bank will raise its benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points. Another sticky inflation report is likely to shore up those chances.
Claire Boston is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance, covering housing, mortgages and home insurance.
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