President Donald Trump still has two weeks to save his Republican majorities in Congress and defy expectations of a midterm wipeout. But all around him, his collaborators and allies are preparing for what would happen if he fails.
Administration officials are increasingly convinced that the Republican Party’s big losses will trigger major upheavals in the government workforce, as Trump searches for aides to blame and dozens more consider abandoning a lame duck presidency at its lowest point.
The angst has transformed a White House that once prided itself on resolute cohesion into the nerve center of a resurgence of infighting and leaks in Trump’s world, said several administration officials, advisers and close allies, who described a toxic mix of jockeying for power and preemptive finger-pointing in the critical final days before November.
“This is more brutal than any situation in modern times in the White House,” said a Trump ally. “You can’t trust anyone here. »
The extraordinary jousting within the administration and throughout Trump’s extended circle has erupted repeatedly over the past two weeks, reinforcing the atmosphere of distrust and stoking Trump’s own frustrations with his advisers around him.
Trump ousted Kimberly Guilfoyle, his ambassador to Greece and his son’s former fiancée, after a series of damaging reports sparked by a Republican donor’s revelation that she had asked him for $100,000 to pay off his credit card. The president also ordered his White House counsel to investigate an ongoing dispute between two close allies, Alina Habba Mildon and Ric Grenell, over allegations that millions of dollars intended for the Kennedy Center were misallocated, according to a source familiar with the matter (Axios was first to report on the investigation).
And Trump fired his new press secretary, Katie Zacharia, after just five days, amid several missteps and near-universal backlash over her performance — even among his close allies.
Amid these crises, some of Trump’s closest aides — chief of staff Susie Wiles and outside policy advisers James Blair and Chris LaCivita — have faced unflattering media coverage that has prompted questions about their standing within the president’s inner circle.
Their defenders, in turn, argued that these stories were driven by rivals seeking to improve their own relations with Trump. Blair has since traveled twice with Trump on Air Force One in the past week, a sign that the president still has confidence in his core team.
“A knife against James or Chris is aimed at Susie,” a source close to the dynamic said.
The series of striking incidents has prompted competing efforts in Trump world to determine who is leaking against whom and for what purpose, two people familiar with the matter said. There is now speculation within the administration about who around Trump will take the fall if the midterm elections go poorly, which top officials will be fired and how many aides might choose to leave afterward, these people said.
“If we lose both the House and the Senate, it’s really unclear what will happen,” a Trump adviser told CNN. “Everyone is fair game.”
In a statement, White House spokesman Davis Ingle called any focus on the administration’s internal dynamics “baseless speculation.”
“President Trump is single-mindedly focused on maintaining Republican majorities in Congress in November, which is why he is traveling across the country to highlight the historic victories his administration has won for the American people,” he said.
Yet in a sign of intense maneuvering, Wiles came under scrutiny after it became clear she was not present when Trump offered Zacharia the press secretary job. Some interpreted the incident as a sign of weakening authority and a possibility of her leaving a job that allowed her to wield considerable power, two Trump advisers said.
There have been rumors that Wiles may soon resign, particularly after a months-long battle with cancer and as she approaches the two-year period when many top White House aides traditionally choose to leave. Trump had four chiefs of staff during his first term and none stayed in office for two years.
But she has signaled no plans to leave, and Trump recently issued a resounding vote of confidence, insisting there was “zero chance” he would replace her.
“She’s not going anywhere,” a senior administration official said of Wiles.
The election outcome is also expected to determine whether several cabinet secretaries will leave their posts rather than face the prospect of months of investigations from newly-incumbent Democrats. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, expected to be a top target for congressional Democrats, has long battled speculation that he could find himself in the hot seat. But Trump has repeatedly defended his zealous made-for-TV secretary.
Some officials have also speculated that Energy Secretary Chris Wright, charged with handling some of the most damaging economic fallout from the war with Iran, might choose to leave the administration to pursue a more lucrative job in the energy sector.
Sean Parnell, the Pentagon’s chief spokesperson, said in a statement that Hegseth was not focused on “fake news or noise from DC.” A Department of Energy spokesperson denied that Wright was considering leaving and said he would remain in office “as long as the president wants him to serve.”
Others, meanwhile, are bracing for the prospect of major post-election reckoning from Trump or his close allies. Allies of Jay Bhattacharya, the director of the National Institutes of Health, have expressed fears that he could be among those most at risk of being fired following a high-profile clash with White House budget chief Russ Vought over control of his agency’s grant spending, two people familiar with the matter said.
The NIH declined to comment, although a person familiar with the dynamic said officials had improved the working relationship between the NIH and the Vought agency in recent weeks.
A White House official said Trump and his team were focused solely on the midterm elections.
Administrations traditionally face some level of turnover after midterm elections, which serve as both a natural exit point for many senior officials and an opportunity for the president to reprioritize ahead of the final two years of his term.
But within this administration, where power is measured primarily by proximity to Trump and allegiances are constantly shifting, any new vacancy could radically shift the balance of power within the White House and alter the trajectory of his agenda.
Trump has not yet given any overt indications that he intends to make any personnel changes after the election, according to people who spoke with him. And he expressed optimism that his recent whirlwind trips on behalf of GOP candidates will have a positive impact on the party’s chances of holding control of Congress.
But many Trump aides and advisers remain gloomy about their chances. They say the Republican majority in the House of Representatives is likely lost, and at this point the mission is more focused on limiting the extent of those losses.
Even though Trump’s advisers still believe they can hold on to the Senate, there is great dismay that the combination of voter backlash against the administration and a handful of bad Senate campaigns has made the effort much more difficult than usual.
It’s a challenge that even Trump has sometimes acknowledged privately, according to people who have spoken to him. He questions why the GOP political landscape is so poor and weighs in on the party’s political strategy.
If Republicans suffer significant losses on Nov. 3, these sources added, Trump will certainly find someone to blame — and it won’t be him.
“The president always loses, for whatever reason, the midterm elections,” Trump lamented Tuesday. “If I can convince my voters, MAGA Republicans, whatever you want to (call them), if they’re going to vote, we’ll win in a landslide. But they have to want to get out to vote, and if you’re not on the ballot, it’s a little harder.”
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