On the downside for Netanyahu, his rival Eisenkot will be responsible for forming the next Israeli government. But the path remains complicated

In a setback for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his main rival will be tasked with forming Israel’s next government, bringing him closer to ousting Israel’s longest-serving leader, although the path remains complicated.

Gadi Eisenkot, a retired military leader who led the centrist Yashar party in the Oct. 27 election, will have up to six weeks to try to build a coalition to replace Netanyahu. But his path to power is strewn with political obstacles and divisions within the opposition itself.

President Isaac Herzog will formally give Eisenkot the mandate to form a government on Sunday, his office said in a statement. Herzog’s decision follows two days of consultations last week with all parties elected to the Knesset.

Eisenkot won the support of 67 members of the new Knesset, including 19 from the two Arab parties. Netanyahu received only 46 recommendations. A notable fissure in his once-loyal bloc was revealed during the consultations when United Torah Judaism, a traditional Netanyahu ally, declined to recommend him.

Yet Herzog’s decision does not automatically remove Netanyahu from power. Eisenkot has a mandate and a parliamentary majority on paper, but not yet a government coalition.

Eisenkot is pushing to form what he calls an “emergency national government” and for a minority government to be sworn in as quickly as possible. It would include the four Jewish opposition parties, which together hold 48 seats: its own Yashar; Together, led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid; Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu and the left-wing democrats led by Yair Golan.

He set four conditions for joining: recognition of Israel as a Jewish, democratic, liberal and egalitarian state, commitment to the values ​​of the Declaration of Independence, universal service – whether military, national or civilian – and recognition of Hamas as a terrorist organization.

The last condition effectively excludes Arab parties from serving in the Cabinet. But they could still support the government from outside, providing a parliamentary safety net. Israeli law requires only a simple majority to establish a government. Removing one is much more difficult and requires an absolute majority of 61 votes in favor of an alternative government. (The Knesset has 120 seats.)

Eisenkot’s central obstacle is Avigdor Liberman. The leader of Yisrael Beitenou and, at different times, former minister of Defense, Foreign Affairs and Finance, has ruled out any government dependent on Arab parties. A minority government, he argues, will be short-lived and, in the long run, will only strengthen Netanyahu. “Netanyahu will return with 70 seats for another four years, and from there the road to annihilation will be short,” Liberman wrote on X on Friday.

Instead, Liberman proposed a different path. Abandoning his years-long veto of ultra-Orthodox parties, he called for a “maximum effort” to form a coalition of 61 lawmakers with the two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, and without the Joint List and Ra’am. Once formed, he added, three or four Likud lawmakers could defect.

This project, however, conflicts with one of the opposition’s fundamental commitments: putting an end to the plan for a general exemption from compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox men. Ultra-Orthodox parties are pushing for legislation that would enshrine this exemption, and Eisenkot, Liberman and the rest of the opposition have promised universal service throughout the campaign. Additionally, one of the ultra-Orthodox parties remains loyal to Netanyahu.

Netanyahu, who lost his parliamentary majority, is also lobbying hard against any Jewish-Arab political cooperation. He disputes the election results and claims the vote was “stolen” by Arab parties, through bribes and foreign funding. David Zini, his loyal Shin Bet director, pushed to investigate Arab politicians without any public evidence.

In a video statement on Saturday, Netanyahu warned that if a minority government was formed with the support of Arab parties, Israel “simply would not survive.” Instead, he called for a government of national unity with his entire bloc, which includes far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. Netanyahu called on “all Zionist parties who want to preserve our one and only state from the Jewish people.”

Eisenkot called his message a “pathetic twist.” In a statement, the Yashar party said: “If Likud wants a broad unity government, it is more than welcome to announce the dissolution of the alliance with the extremists and enter a government led by Prime Minister Eisenkot. »

Eisenkot’s first test will come Tuesday with the inauguration of the new Knesset. The opposition intends to replace Netanyahu as Knesset speaker, weakening his grip on power and allowing opposition parties to begin taking some steps, such as forming a state commission of inquiry into the security failures that led to the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas. Starting Sunday, Eisenkot will have 28 days to negotiate with other parties over ministerial posts, budgets and policies, with a possible extension of 14 days. If he fails, the mandate passes to Netanyahu for four more weeks.

Eisenkot said Friday he intended to form a government as quickly as possible, calling the situation a national emergency. “A situation in which an interim prime minister from a minority, who has lost the trust of the people in such an extreme way, continues to operate the security system and law enforcement, is a dangerous situation that must not last even one more day,” he wrote on X.