OPB poll shows Oregon governor’s race virtually deadlocked

Concerns about rising costs, high taxes, enduring homelessness and a lack of leadership are major factors for Oregonians — and are helping drive a neck-and-neck gubernatorial race this year that shows no signs of a decisive break for either candidate.

That’s according to a new poll commissioned this month by Oregon Public Broadcasting. The survey of 915 likely voters constitutes the largest sample of political opinions in the Beaver State to date this election year and will be the subject of future articles on voter sentiment in Oregon and Southwest Washington.

The poll suggests the race between Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek and Republican Sen. Christine Drazan is nearly deadlocked about two weeks before votes are distributed to voters.

When initially asked who they were most likely to vote for, 46% of voters chose Drazan and 44% nominated Kotek. Another 3% chose Brett Smith, the only third-party candidate in the race, and 8% were undecided.

The results changed somewhat when pollsters pressed undecided voters on which candidate they were leaning toward, a step that pollster John Horvick said offered the clearest reflection of where the race stood. This resulted in Drazan receiving 47% support to Kotek’s 46%. Smith maintained 3% and 5% of respondents remained undecided.

The poll’s margin of error is 3.24%.

These results are the latest sign that Democrats are once again struggling to sell a track record of success to a skeptical public — a theme that has played out in each of the last three gubernatorial races.

Fewer than 30 percent of respondents to the commission’s survey said they thought the state was moving in the right direction, and 58 percent said it was on the wrong track.

Kotek, who is seeking a second four-year term, spent much of his campaign tying Drazan to President Donald Trump’s unpopular policies rather than touting his own record. The OPB poll suggests the governor has only a slightly better image than Trump among Oregon voters: an approval rating of 38 percent, compared to the president’s 37 percent.

“There are still a lot of undecided voters heading into November. But when the choice is clear in an election, they always show up,” Federico Araujo, communications director for Kotek’s campaign, said in a statement responding to the poll. “The choice couldn’t be clearer in this race: Christine Drazan is ready to open the door to Trump’s agenda, and Governor Kotek fights every day to protect Oregonians from the excesses and harms of the federal government.”

Drazan, meanwhile, has worked to convince voters that Kotek has failed on major issues such as educational achievement, housing and improving the economy. She received favorable ratings from 45% of likely voters.

“Poll after poll shows that Oregonians of all political stripes are fed up with Tina Kotek’s failed leadership and are finding more and more reasons to support Christine Drazan,” Trey Rosser, a campaign consultant for Drazan, said in a provided response. “While Kotek works to blame and shame others for problems that have worsened under his leadership, Christine is rallying support around her plan to cut costs, combat homelessness, build more housing, improve education and hold state government accountable.

Drazan’s argument appears to have more traction with his supporters – for now. Among those who said they would likely vote for Kotek, less than 80% said they had a favorable opinion of the governor. At the same time, more than 90% of Drazan’s likely voters have a positive opinion of their candidate.

“Drazan has really solidified her base. She doesn’t need to do anything to get Republicans to support her,” said Horvick, senior vice president of DHM Research, the company that conducted the poll for OPB. “Can she eliminate enough Democrats, left-wing independents and unaffiliated voters to win?

He continued: “The other side of the story is there’s this group of voters that maybe naturally should belong to Kotek, and this will be his opportunity next month to try to get them back.”

The all-important Portland metro area will likely be a priority for both candidates. The OPB poll shows Kotek currently attracting 54% of voters in the tri-county area — fewer than the roughly 61% of voters she gained there in the 2022 election. Drazan had the support of 40% of voters in the metro area, but led Kotek among voters in the rest of the state.

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The top issues on the minds of Oregon voters this year are largely economic. When asked what the biggest problem facing the state was, 52 percent of respondents said either the cost of living, housing affordability, high tax rates or the job market. Homelessness and a lack of leadership were also on voters’ minds.

These results vary somewhat depending on party affiliation.

Democrats’ top concerns this year include the cost of living, housing affordability, Trump and climate change. Republicans are more focused on high taxes, lack of leadership, Democratic political dominance in Oregon and homelessness. Unaffiliated voters, who outnumber members of both parties but are less likely to vote, said high costs, homelessness, taxes and poor leadership were the state’s top challenges.

Data centers and artificial intelligence — two topics that have become a flashpoint in state and national politics — barely ranked among voters’ top concerns in this poll. But when asked specifically about the issues that would motivate their vote this year, 72% of likely voters said data centers would influence their votes – which remains well below the cost of living, the economy and primary and secondary schools.

Perhaps for Drazan’s sake, let’s hope a plurality of Oregon voters say they trust a conservative leader more on economic issues. The poll showed that 44% of likely voters would prefer a Conservative take on these issues. Drazan has made reducing business regulations and boosting the state’s economy a centerpiece of his campaign.

There is also positive news for Kotek. Oregonians would prefer their governor to be liberal on social issues, with 42% saying they prefer this approach. The governor has highlighted her positions on protecting access to abortion and safeguarding LGBTQ+ rights as she campaigns for a second term.

Horvick noted that the issues motivating voters this year are very different from those four years ago, when Kotek first faced Drazan. In this race, homelessness, crime and uncontrolled drug use were at the top of voters’ concerns.

The OPB poll suggests the race for governor is getting tighter as Election Day approaches. Polls taken in late June and early September showed Drazan up 4% and 2% respectively. The OPB survey shows fewer undecided voters than previous results and a Republican margin of just 1 percent, well within the poll’s margin of error.

The survey was conducted from September 17 to 27. He used a mix of phone interviews and text messages that directed Oregon voters to an online form.

Although no Republican has won the governorship since 1982, there is precedent that the party has the advantage at this point in the race. In 2022, Drazan dominated most public polls until November, only to see his lead collapse in the final days.

“That’s Kotek’s real problem: If she loses, she will lose because she will have lost the support of largely moderate Democrats in the Portland metro area,” Horvick said. “Can Kotek hold back these skeptical Democrats? We have 40 years of history to suggest that it is more likely than not that a Democrat will do this, but when a Democrat loses, it will be because of this.”

This year, Republicans’ main concern may be monetary. Drazan said it has raised $11.1 million since January 2025, about $2.5 million less than Kotek. But because she needed to navigate a competitive Republican primary, Drazan has less than $1 million, compared to more than $8 million in Kotek’s war chest.

Drazan has scheduled appearances alongside national Republican figures as she seeks to boost fundraising. Last weekend, she appeared alongside Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at a Republican Party dinner in Hillsboro, drawing sharp criticism from Democrats who portrayed the Floridian as a Trump henchman. On Wednesday, she is expected to appear alongside Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte in Eugene.