LONDON/MOSCOW, Nov 1: OPEC+ oil-producing countries on Sunday maintained their production targets for December, confirming expectations that further policy adjustments would not take place until next year, as the group continues to grapple with export disruptions from the war in Iran.
Seven main OPEC+ members – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman – made the decision in an online meeting on Sunday, OPEC said in a statement. Even if the Gulf countries have increased their exports, disrupted for months by the conflict, most of them are still pumping well below their objectives.
OPEC+ includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia. Only the seven members – plus the United Arab Emirates until it left OPEC in May – have been involved in monthly production decisions in recent years. All members of the 21-nation group are due to meet on November 29, when analysts expect them to decide on quotas for 2027.
“Today’s decision was the easiest,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad. “The much bigger test will come at the November 29 ministerial meeting, when OPEC+ decides on its production framework for 2027.”
Oil prices jumped more than 2% on Friday, with Brent crude settling at nearly $118 a barrel, the highest since April, as traders braced for a possible escalation of the war in Iran after the US midterm elections.
The International Energy Agency and other forecasters have warned of oversupply in 2027 if Gulf flows return to normal.
“OPEC+ faces an extremely difficult call for 2027,” Leon added. “The group faces enormous uncertainty regarding the US-Iran war, the pace of the recovery in the Strait of Hormuz and the scale of the surplus that could emerge once the return of barrels is disrupted.”
REVIEW OF OIL CAPACITY FOR INTENT
The seven members raised their production targets for much of 2026 and in September completed the 1.65 million barrels per day supply phasedown first agreed to in 2023. In previous meetings, they kept the targets unchanged for October and November.
OPEC+ still has an additional level of production cuts of around 2 million bpd covering most of its members until the end of 2026.
The group is expected to complete a review of its members’ production capacity in the fourth quarter before setting benchmarks for 2027 that will determine future quotas and develop plans to roll back those cuts, sources said.
The war in Iran has disrupted plans to expand capacity in the Middle East, throwing estimates of future production potential into uncertainty, Reuters reported in October. As a result, the review is now expected to be completed by mid-November.
(Writing by Alex Lawler; editing by Joe Bavier and Alex Richardson)
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