PFF grades and advanced stats from Giants’ loss to Commanders

The post-mortem of a game the New York Giants should have won but didn’t is never fun. Let’s see what we can learn from Pro Football Focus’ grades and advanced stats on who played well and who didn’t. Before we look at the offense and defense, let’s note that PFF gave Jordan Stout its lowest grade of the season because of that 12-yard scamper in the fourth quarter that gave the Commanders decent field position to start their winning campaign, and of course Dominic Zvada got a low grade for his missed field goal from 32 yards (though not as low as Washington and Houston’s early games in which he missed multiple times). That’s part of the story, but there was blame on the offense and defense. And let’s not forget coaching. We used to talk about a “prevent defense” that tried to maintain leads by playing soft coverage that stopped big plays. Well, last night John Harbaugh played what you might call a “preventive offense”, being scared away by field goal attempts and punting in Commanders territory after an early Zvada’a miss and trying to run down the clock with running plays and quarterback keepers instead of calling easy throw and catch plays to keep the ball out of Jayden Daniels’ hands.

PFF didn’t give any elite grades (80 or higher) to anyone on offense last night (this was partly due to weather; Washington only had one elite offensive player itself, Ben Sinnott). JJ McCarthy received a very good overall offensive rating, more because of his running (three carries for 29 yards) than his passing. However, his passing grade was degraded by his final offensive play, a deep interception on which he was blitzed and on which Malik Nabers did not make much effort to help. Overall, JJ handled the pressure well, doing about as well as he did when he stayed clean:

JJ was blitzed on 45% of dropbacks: 2 of his 3 turnover-worthy plays came on blitzes, but 2 of his 3 big throws also came on blitzes. In total, with 293 yards, a pretty good performance.

Of note is the performance of the offensive line. Even though McCarthy was under pressure on 35% of his setbacks, OL performed rather well overall. Jon Runyan and Sisi Mauigoa had excellent pass blocking plays, with Runyan having a clear stat line and Mauigoa only giving up one rush. The execution block scores weren’t as good but not terrible either. Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eluemunor both had very good pass coverage with 2 rushing runs attributed to AT and a QB hit to Eluemunor. Bryan Hudson graded below average in pass blocking with 2 carries and just below average in run blocking. Patrick Ricard had his best game as a Giant, especially in run blocking. Cam Skattebo fell just below the Very Good category with his 18 carries for 78 yards; maybe he was downgraded a bit for eating before the match and throwing up on the sidelines 🙂

None of the receivers graded as high as Very Good, although Malachi Fields and Isaiah Likely came close. The reason Probably didn’t get a higher grade despite his 9-of-11, 127-yard, 1-TD performance was because of his fumble; PFF rates turnovers very harshly. Malik Nabers totaled just 44 yards on 5 catches on 7 targets, but his very low mark reflects his fumble that cost the Giants a scoring chance.

The defense was a different story. There was a great defensive performance last night – the defense wasn’t the main reason the Giants lost the game. Ar’Darius Washington has seen his playing time increase over the past three weeks, and last night he had an outstanding grade of 89.9 overall, 91.4 in coverage. Washington was targeted 6 times and gave up 3 completions for a total of just 11 yards and a passer rating of 16.7. He made back-to-back great plays, a pass-catching stop and then an interception, with the game on the line and the Commanders in scoring position. His only blemish was 3 missed tackles, but he had 5 tackles and 2 assists.

The rest of the secondary level did not perform as well. Deonte Banks received just below average coverage and overall defense grade; if he turns his head and tries to play the ball on a deep pass to Treylon Burks with less than two minutes left, there’s no flag and the Giants could end up winning the game. Jevon Holland had the big interception, but he also allowed a touchdown and a total of 40 yards on the passing plays. Dru Phillips graded 53.5 overall and 48.8 in coverage, mostly because he gave up the losing TD to Stefon Diggs, but he also missed two tackles. Greg Newsome also had a below average grade, giving up 22 yards on 2 receptions on 3 targets and missing a tackle. Jason Pinnock also got a low rating before leaving the game; he missed 2 tackles and had poor coverage, mainly because he was covering Daniels’ TD pass to Ben Sinnott.

The Giants’ hottest defensive players (with Brian Burns out for the season) are now Abdul Carter and Arvell Reese. Both were rated Very Good overall by PFF. Reese didn’t do anything in the pass rush last night, but he had 7 tackles and 5 assists, including three stops, with no missed tackles. He also gave up four completions on four targets in pass coverage, but they totaled just 21 total yards with just 9 YAC, ensuring a very good coverage grade. Carter is the most difficult assessment. He continues to be unable to get to the QB for sacks, but he had a QB hit and 2 carries plus 2 tackles and an assist, giving him a very good overall defense rating. Micah McFadden had a QB rush and 9 tackles plus a pass pass, but he only got an average overall because he gave up 4 catches and 55 yards in pass defense.

The rest of the defensive line consisted of mediocre to poor performances. Kayvon Thibodeaux only had one QB rush and graded pretty low on run defense despite 7 tackles and an assist, suggesting he was simply blocked on some running plays. DJ Reader had his worst game as a Giant, with only 1 rush and 1 tackle. Shelby Harris got her first sack and rushed and had 2 tackles, 2 assists. Bobby Jamison-Travis continued to get snaps but only had one tackle and one assist, but that was better than Darius Alexander, who only had one tackle.

The Giants’ overall defense can be summed up like this: Not bad, but not great either. Here is an overall ranking of NFL defenses in a number of categories:

Overall, the Giants rank 12th in the NFL in points per game given up. That sounds pretty good, although it must be said that other than the Rams, they haven’t played any of the most high-powered offenses in the NFL. They’re below average in sacks, slightly below average in takeaways, and among the worst in the league in tackles for loss. It could be a lot worse, but they don’t scare anyone either. Speaking of scary, note that the Jaguars, next week’s opponents, are No. 2 in the league in points per game allowed although they haven’t scored high in any individual category, unlike the No. 1 Vikings, who rank first in sacks. One way or another, the Jags keep teams out of the end zone in most of their games. They have the second-best red zone D in the NFL, while the Giants’ red zone D ranks near the bottom:

This is important, because as I noted, John Harbaugh and his offensive coordinator Matt Nagy have for the most part been very conservative in their play calls and fourth-down decisions. It’s quantified below by Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points:

According to the plot above, the Giants go for 4th only about 1 in 3 times when the situation indicates a win probability of at least one point added by going there, one of the lowest rates in the NFL. Here’s a related statistic on the same philosophy:

At this point, it seems appropriate to remind ourselves of the wisdom of Herm Edwards (even though he said it in a different context):

Speaking of which, here are the NFL rankings for three-and-over offense rates over the past three weeks, conveniently coinciding with JJ McCarthy’s starting era as the Giants:

Perhaps related to this, here are the check rates for NFL QBs over the last 4 weeks:

So is McCarthy a gunslinger who avoids taking the few easy yards in favor of shooting downfield? That might be one way to interpret the deep pass to Nabers that was intercepted on the Giants’ last drive, but the question is whether Nagy’s offense gives him an easy answer underneath and whether JJ ignores it or doesn’t see it or gives him no answer at all. On the Nabers INT, the pressure up the middle came quickly, but Malachi Fields was right there for McCarthy to throw shallow and pick up a few yards with enough time for a few more plays:

That said, in a matchup between one of the most highly regarded young QBs in the league and a QB drafted 8 spots lower and passed up for a 5th round pick, the performances of Jayden Daniels and JJ McCarthy weren’t that different last night, and where they were, the difference mostly favored McCarthy:

Daniels had a higher completion rate (69.7% to 63.9%), but JJ’s CPOE was close to zero while Daniels’ was -2.1%. McCarthy’s ddep throw rate was 11.1% compared to Daniels’ 3.0%. The two had nearly identical throwing times (2.59 vs. 2.55s), but McCarthy was pressured 38.5% of the time compared to Daniels’ 20.5%. McCarthy threw himself into tight windows 11.1% of the time compared to Daniels’ 6.1%.

The bottom line is that no one questions Jayden Daniels’ ability and status as one of the best young QBs in the NFL. McCarthy has traveled a more difficult path. How much of it is his own fault versus that of the team that drafted him is a matter of discussion and difficult to determine from the outside. But nothing he’s shown as a Giant suggests he can’t be a productive QB at the NFL level. It didn’t work for him last night, but he gave the Giants a chance to win.