Kyiv, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine and Russia have have indicated their desire to resume U.S.-brokered peace talks and support a humanitarian mission led by U.S. first lady Melania Trump. But deep disagreements over territory and security guarantees, which resurfaced this week, underscore the obstacles to ending the war.
The new diplomatic push comes after more than 4 and a half years of combatleading to a surprise announcement Friday: kyiv and Moscow agreed to a local ceasefire to allow aid next week to a blockaded town in the Kherson region of war-divided southern Ukraine, following secret consultations between Melanie Trump and civilian negotiators from Russia and Ukraine.
Although the initiative has raised hopes for similar humanitarian missions in the future, there is little indication that key positions have changed. Russia continues to demand Ukrainian territories it does not fully control, while kyiv insists any deal must include ironclad guarantees against further invasion.
Hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin said he accepted “in principle” the resumption of negotiations, Russia launched a deadly barrage ballistic missiles and drones on Kyiv. Moscow announced the same day that it had destroyed more than 800 Ukrainian drones heading towards its cities.
Here’s a look at where the two countries stand as possible negotiations loom.
Peace talks likely in mid-November
WE presidential envoy Steve Witkoff secured the latest commitment to negotiations after shuttling from Oslo, Norway, to St. Petersburg, Russia, this week to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin.
A new round of negotiations would be the fourth negotiated by the Trump administration, following the last round of negotiations in Geneva in February.
A Kremlin spokesperson said the next round of negotiations would likely take place in Abu Dhabithe capital of the United Arab Emiratesaround mid-November. Western governments supporting the peace initiative are seeking a new formula to break the impasse while recognizing that territorial and security issues remain unresolved.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s ties to Zelensky have fell to a new low. Moscow was supported by Trump’s agreement that Russia would supply diesel to the United States and its recent rejection of new sanctions against Russia.
Kyiv was undermined by satellite support disruptions for its drones after rejecting a call from the American president to stop strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. Ukrainian leaders fear these measures will embolden Putin, giving him little incentive to compromise at the negotiating table.
As Trump increased pressure on Zelensky, accusing him of being an obstacle to peace, Witkoff secured the release of an imprisoned American. for more than four years accused of having fought as a mercenary in Ukraine. The envoy called the Russian leader “humanitarian” during their meeting in St. Petersburg – a remark that sparked consternation in Ukraine.
The two sides are still very far apart
As both sides reject calls for new talks, Russia and Ukraine are still far from each other on their terms for a settlement, while their armies remain stuck on the battlefield and hit each other with daily long-range strikes.
At the heart of Russia’s demands is full control of four Ukrainian regions that it illegally annexed months after the start of the large-scale invasion in 2022: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, in addition to Crimea, which Moscow seized in 2014.
Russia currently occupies around 20% of Ukraine, but has failed to capture all of the territory in the regions over which it claims sovereignty.
In a long list of demands, Moscow also wants Ukraine to withdraw its forces from the four annexed regions, abandon its attempt to join NATO, reduce the size of its army and drop restrictions against the Russian language and a Moscow-affiliated branch of the Orthodox Church.
Speaking on state television on Thursday evening, Putin said Moscow remained “ready to negotiate and seek solutions to this difficult and complex situation”, before adding: “But if some prefer a different path, so be it. In any case, all the objectives of the special military operation will be achieved.”
Zelensky – who has publicly advocated for peace talks for months – says ceding land would make Ukraine more vulnerable to future attacks. kyiv views security guarantees as essential to preventing Russia from restarting the war in the future.
The Ukrainian president reaffirmed his support for a ceasefire that would freeze frontline positions, followed by negotiations on the conditions for ending the war. Moscow has rejected a pause in hostilities until a comprehensive agreement on its terms is reached.
Security guarantees remain pending
While kyiv and Moscow have maintained limited contact to arrange prisoner exchanges and the return of fallen soldiers, previous negotiations have made no progress on the security arrangements needed to maintain a peace deal.
Ukraine believes that security guarantees supported by Western allies are essential to any future settlement, ideally in the form of NATO membership — an option that Vladimir Putin has rejected. Ukraine intends to rely largely on its own army as the main guarantee of security, with financial support from its allies.
Other elements of security guarantees under discussion range from NATO membership, which the U.S. administration has currently excludeddirect guarantees from the United States in what Zelenskyy described as an “Article 5-type format” and support from the 30-nation European-led alliance known as the Coalition of the Willing.
Article 5 of the NATO charter contains the alliance’s Guarantee of Mutual Defense, which establishes that an attack on one is an attack on all.
“All these guarantees are possible on the basis of a strong Ukrainian army – in terms of number and quality – with clear, and not insignificant, financing. Our colleagues in Europe and America know this,” Zelensky told reporters Thursday at a press briefing.
Following massive attacks on kyiv and other cities this week, he said only increased Western pressure on Moscow would change his calculations about future peace talks.
“It is important to continue looking for the right solutions to end this war,” Zelensky wrote in an online message. “But when Russia responds to negotiations with ballistic missiles, real pressure is needed on it to take different steps – steps to stop the killing. »
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