Predicting the full 14-team NFL playoff bracket after the trade deadline: Entire NFC North makes playoffs

The NFL trade deadline was Tuesday, and no one made a bigger move than the Minnesota Vikings. With their season on the line, the Vikings decided to make a trade for Kirk Cousins.

With this move, the Vikings should qualify for the playoffs with EVERY OTHER TEAM in the NFC North. That’s right, in our latest projection, all four teams in the NFC North will make the playoffs. If that happens, it would be the first time in NFL history that a division has sent all four teams to the playoffs in a single season.

So who else should participate? Glad you asked.

To help us figure this out, we asked our analytics expert, Stephen Oh, to simulate the remainder of the 2026 season. There are 136 games remaining on the regular season schedule, as well as 13 playoff games, and Oh has simulated them all. Not only did it project all eight division winners and all 14 playoff teams, but it also crowned a Super Bowl champion.

With that in mind, let’s move on to the projections. And as a reminder, we’re projecting what the NFL playoff field will look like at the end of the season. This is NOT the current playoff standings.

Projected AFC Playoff Field

The AFC playoff picture is starting to take shape, and based on our projections, it’s starting to look like this conference’s playoff teams are all but locked in at this point. For the second week in a row, not only do our predictions predict the same seven teams will make the playoffs, but they will all be seeded in the exact same place.

Here is the projected AFC playoff field (with each team’s current record):
1. Bills (7-1) — AFC East Champion
2. Jaguars (6-2) – AFC South Champion
3. Broncos (7-2) – AFC West Champion
4. Bengals (6-2) – AFC North Champion
5. Chiefs (6-2)
6. Steelers (6-2)
7. Patriots (5-4)
JUST MISSED: Texans (3-5), Browns (5-4)

According to our projection, the only real battle will be for the seventh seed. The Patriots should get the spot right now, but the Texans are hot on their heels. We expect both teams to finish the season at 9-8, but the Patriots sneak by thanks to a better conference record.

Projected NFC Playoff Field

The good news for the Vikings is that the addition of Kirk Cousins ​​helps: They should now finish with 11 wins – up from 10 without Cousins ​​– but the problem is that 11 wins won’t help them win the division. According to our projection, the Vikings will finish THIRD in the NFC North, but that will still be enough to qualify them for the playoffs.

Here is the projected NFC playoff field (with each team’s current record):
1. 49ers (7-1) — NFC West Champion
2. Lions (6-2) – NFC North Champion
3. Giants (5-2-1) — NFC East Champion
4. Buccaneers (3-6) — NFC South Champion
5. Bears (7-2)
6. Vikings (6-2)
7. Packers (6-3)
JUST MISSED: Seahawks (5-4), Rams (5-4)

For the first time this season, our model predicts that all FOUR teams in the NFC North will make the playoffs. At this point, it seems like the only way this doesn’t happen is if the Rams or Seahawks get 11 wins, but our computer doesn’t see that happening.

Getting all four teams in a division into the playoffs in the same year wasn’t possible before 2020, when the NFL expanded the playoffs to 14 teams. Since then, there have been several instances where a division has entered three teams, but we have yet to see a division enter all four teams, so this could be a historic season.

Joker round

AFC

• (2) Jaguars 26-19 over (7) Patriots
• (3) Broncos 21-19 over (6) Steelers
• (4) Bengals 26-25 over (5) Chiefs

AFC breakdown: Home field advantage ends up being a real advantage here, with all three home teams winning in the first round. With the elimination of the Patriots and Chiefs, they would eliminate the two teams that have represented the AFC in eight of the last nine Super Bowls.

NFC

• (2) Lions 27-23 over (7) Packers
• (6) Vikings 23-21 over (3) Giants
• (4) Bears 25-23 on (5) Buccaneers

NFC failure: The NFC North has been the best division in football all year, and the division makes a statement in the wild-card round by producing three winners. If that happens, we would have a rarity: The NFC North would become just the fifth division in NFL history to send three teams to the divisional round.

Divisional round

AFC

• (1) Bills 33-24 on (4) Bengals
• (2) Jaguars 23-19 over (3) Broncos

AFC breakdown: If our projection turns out to be correct, getting home-field advantage could be a big problem for the AFC. After seeing the home teams sweep the wild-card round, the race continues with Buffalo and Jacksonville both winning at home. With the victory, the Bills advance to their third AFC title game since 2020 while the Jaguars return to the AFC Championship for the first time since 2017.

NFC

• (1) 49ers 25-20 over (6) Vikings
• (2) Lions 28-25 over (5) Bears

NFC failure: The Lions beat an NFC North team in the wild-card round, and they continue their playoff run by beating another NFC North team in the divisional round. As for the 49ers, Kyle Shanahan finds a way to get his offense going against Minnesota’s stout defense, propelling his team to victory. This sets up a rematch of the 2023 NFC title game between the Lions and 49ers.

If you score at home, that leaves only four teams: three teams that have never won a Super Bowl (Bills, Jaguars and Lions) and one team that hasn’t won a Super Bowl in over 30 years (the 49ers’ last title was in 1994).

Conference title games

AFC Championship

• (1) Bills 28-24 on (2) Jaguars. As Josh Allen aims to reach his first Super Bowl, he takes control of the game and leads the Bills to a wild victory. With a loss here, that means the Jaguars’ season ends against the Bills for the second year in a row.

NFC Championship

• (1) 49ers 27-26 over (2) Lions. These two teams met in the 2023 NFC title game, with the 49ers winning 34-31 after the Lions blew a 24-7 halftime lead. This time around we get another classic with the 49ers edging the Lions by one point to advance to their third Super Bowl in eight seasons.

Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium

• (1) Bills 30-25 on (1) 49ers. The Bills have never won a Super Bowl, and the 49ers haven’t won a Lombardi Trophy in 32 years, so this game would give us two championship-hungry fan bases descending on Los Angeles. Ultimately, the 49ers defense has no answers for Josh Allen, who ends up leading the Bills to their first Lombardi Trophy with a huge game. Buffalo’s Super Bowl parade begins as soon as the clock hits zero, with Bills fans marching directly from Los Angeles to Buffalo on the world’s longest parade route.

We’ve been screening every week since the start of the season, and here’s a look at the Super Bowl screened each week.

• Preseason Prediction: Rams versus crows
• After week 1: Seahawks vs. Ravens
• After week 2: Seahawks vs. Chiefs
• After week 3: The Chiefs vs. the Vikings
• After week 4: Seahawks vs. Chiefs
• After week 5: 49ers vs. Chiefs
• After week 6: Chefs over 49
• After week 7: Vikings Bills
• After week 8: Bills instead of bears
• After week 8: Bills higher than 49ers

As you can see, the computer has really taken a liking to the Bills, as this is the third week in a row that Buffalo is expected to win the Super Bowl. Scratch that, the computer loves the Bills: Buffalo has a 16.94% chance of winning it all, which is a huge number considering there’s only one other team that’s even above 10% (the Jaguars are at 10.74%).