Prediction Markets Think Two Texas Republicans Will Lose Elections

Early voting in Texas begins Monday, and right now two of the state’s biggest elections, for governor and U.S. Senate, remain hotly contested.

Over the past decade, the accuracy of polls has been repeatedly questioned, as they were often wildly inaccurate during the 2016 presidential campaign. The Pew Research Center recently highlighted reasons why polls may be unreliable in 2026, including AI synthetic polling, the impact of mail-in ballot changes, and uncertainty around data centers as a blocking issue.

This year, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket offer a new way to track the likelihood of a particular race tilting toward the Republicans or Democrats. Here’s who oddsmakers think will win Texas’ biggest races with just weeks until Election Day:

Kalshi and Polymarket give Democrat James Talarico a big lead over Republican Ken Paxton as of Friday afternoon. Kalshi has Talarico ahead 61% to 39% and Polymarket has Talarico ahead 62% to 40%.

Despite Talarico’s lead, Kalshi and Polymarket have seen the race tighten over the past two weeks. Talarico was up 66% on Kalshi and 68% on Polymarket at the start of the month. Kalshi shows that over $30.4 million was spent on this race.

Most polls show Gov. Greg Abbott in the toughest gubernatorial race of his political career. Recent polls actually had Hinojosa in the lead before Abbott regained the lead by a single point. But few people are willing to bet on Hinojosa winning.

Kalshi and Polymarket have Abbott ahead by 50 points. He leads 75% to 25% on Kalshi and 76% to 25% on Polymarket. This is currently one of the largest gaps between what polls reveal and public trust.

It’s a similar story in the race for lieutenant governor. While stories abound about Dan Patrick in a neck-and-neck race with Democrat Vikki Goodwin, few in the prediction markets see things the same way.

Kalshi has Patrick comfortably ahead with 72% to 28%.

While people who spend in predictive markets don’t see Abbott or Patrick in trouble, the same can’t be said for Bo French, the Republican candidate for Texas railroad commissioner. French made his name by being a terrible human being. Sometimes it was too much, even for fellow Republicans like Abbott, as well as Senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz.

The Houston Chronicle editorial board recently compiled a list of all the worst Democratic and Republican candidates. The entire ignominious list deserves your attention, but French, who has adopted Islamaphobia as his platform, is not a surprising addition.

Punters have noticed. Kalshi has Democrat Jon Rosenthal leading French 56% to 44%, while Polymarket has it between 50% and 44% for Rosenthal. It remains to be seen whether Texas voters will also see it that way.

Only one of the two prediction markets — Kalshi — lets people bet on the Harris County judge race, but very few people bet on anyone except Democrat Letitia Plummer. She is ahead of Republican Orlando Sanchez by 90 to 10%.