With stocks up 279% this year, Micron technology (UM -2.62%) has been one of the best performing stocks in 2026.
Micron stock has seen some turbulence lately, pulling back from a 52-week high reached near the end of June. However, the company’s shares have seen an impressive rebound over the past two months, up 31% since the beginning of August. The next big test for Micron’s rally will come on September 30, when it reports its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results.
The company’s quarterly performance and forecasts will play a key role in how the stock performs in the final quarter of the year. Let’s take a look at Micron’s outlook to understand where this semiconductor stock could be by the end of the year.
Image source: Micron Technology.
Micron could benefit from a nice boost following its results
Micron Technology faces ambitious targets in its quarterly report. The company’s revenue is expected to increase 352% year over year to $51.2 billion, according to consensus estimates. Analysts expect earnings per share (EPS) to rise more than 10 times to $31.59.
Today’s change
(-2.62%) $-28h30
Current price
$1,053.98
Key Data Points
Daily scope
$1032.00 -$1084.81
52 week range
$163.96 -$1255.00
Volume
22.2 million
Average flight
35.2 million
Gross margin
72.60%
Dividend yield
0.05%
It’s worth noting that the midpoint of Micron’s guidance for the recently concluded quarter called for EPS of $31.00 on revenue of $50 billion. Analysts expect Micron to beat expectations, which is not surprising given the favorable supply and demand conditions in the memory market.
Citi believes that the supply-demand gap in the memory sector is poised to widen, driven by the growing demand for AI-driven high-bandwidth memory (HBM). According to Citi, global demand for dynamic random access memory (DRAM) could increase by 30% in 2027 and 35% in 2028. At the same time, supply growth is expected to be slower, at 19% in 2027 and 22% in 2028.
A similar scenario will play out in the NAND flash storage market. Citi projects that demand is on track to jump 29% next year and 33% in 2028. These increases will outpace supply increases of 21% and 25% in 2027 and 2028, respectively.
Micron sells DRAM and NAND flash memory chips. DRAM accounts for 76% of the company’s revenue, with NAND flash generating the rest of its revenue. Thus, the favorable supply and demand dynamics in both markets will ensure that Micron’s meteoric growth continues.
Interestingly, some analysts believe memory supply constraints will ease next year, particularly in the case of NAND flash. However, this seems unlikely given the scale of investment in AI data centers. For example, PwC projects that annual capital spending on AI infrastructure will increase from $800 billion in 2026 to $1.8 trillion in 2050.
The consultancy estimates that spending on AI chips will increase from 70% currently to 93% in 2050. Given that memory is the largest cost element of AI chips, I won’t be surprised to see Micron’s addressable market grow rapidly in the long term.
The favorable momentum discussed above suggests that Micron’s numbers could indeed beat expectations, as did forecasts. That’s precisely why I think this AI stock is about to get a nice boost following its upcoming report, which could set the stage for a strong end to the year.
Here’s what investors can expect by the end of 2026
Micron’s 12-month median price target of $1,600 indicates a 48% jump from current levels, according to 57 analysts covering the stock. However, the company’s ability to exceed expectations, thanks to a potential improvement in memory market dynamics, could propel it much higher.
Analysts, for example, expect Micron’s EPS to rise 643% year-over-year in the current quarter (which ends in November) to $35.45. Adding the projected EPS for the current quarter to Micron’s EPS over the past three quarters indicates earnings per share of $103.76 for the trailing twelve months to the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2027 (calculated by adding the projected earnings of the previous and current quarter to the actual EPS of the second and third quarters of the fiscal year).
If Micron trades at 24 times earnings at the end of 2026, in line with the Nasdaq-100 Index’s forward earnings multiple, its stock price could rise as high as $2,490 (based on the EPS calculated above). This is a potential 130% upside from current levels, suggesting that Micron could go parabolic in the final quarter of the year.
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