Prime Minister Mark Carney says US is trying to break up Canada as Alberta votes to separate

CALGARY, Alberta (AP) — Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned Thursday that the United States is trying to break up Canada so it can “own us,” urging oil-rich Alberta not to begin a process of separation in Monday’s referendum.

The vote is not a direct referendum on independence. Alberta, which has the fourth-largest proven oil reserves in the world, will decide whether it remains a province or asks the government to begin the legal process for a future referendum on separation.

“This referendum comes at the worst possible time,” Carney told a large pro-Canada rally in Calgary. “The world has become more dangerous and divided. Some outside our borders are working to break us so that they can possess us.”

READ MORE: Carney and Macron deepen ties as Canada looks to Europe and away from US dependence

He did not directly mention the United States or its President Donald Trump in this passage, but he has done so in previous similar speeches. Carney’s warning comes as U.S. President Donald Trump wages a trade war with Canada and after his repeated threats to make Canada the 51st U.S. state. Carney argued that Canada must become more economically resilient and less dependent on the United States.

Carney urged Albertans not to use the vote simply to send a message to Ottawa, saying a decisive result could settle the separation issue.

“Don’t be fooled by the idea that you can ‘send a message’ with your vote,” Carney said. “This is not poker. A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep divisions and great uncertainty.”

Carney makes the case for Canada

Carney, who grew up in Alberta, spent Thursday campaigning in Calgary before speaking at the Forever Canadian rally at the BMO Centre. His office estimates that about 5,000 people were there, some waiting more than two hours to go through security. Organizers were also holding a second rally with Carney in Edmonton on Friday.

Earlier Thursday, he cited the many Albertans born or educated elsewhere in Canada and the firefighters who come from across the country to help Alberta during wildfires as examples of the ties that bind the province to the rest of Canada.

Participants react during the Forever Canadian rally at the BMO Centre, ahead of a non-binding referendum on Alberta sovereignty, in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, October 15, 2026. Photo by Todd Korol/Reuters

At the rally, Carney also acknowledged the grievances that have fueled alienation in Alberta.

“The frustrations felt by many Albertans are real,” he said. Carney said that growing up, Ottawa made Albertans feel “that our resources weren’t ours” and that more recently the province had felt like its energy contributions were going “against the grain of history.”

Liberal Prime Minister Finds Unlikely Support

The setting is striking for a Liberal Prime Minister. Alberta has spent decades feuding with Liberal governments in Ottawa, notably over energy and federal power. But Carney broke with some of the policies associated with his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, accelerated plans for a new oil pipeline to the Pacific and called Canada an energy superpower.

READ MORE: Carney says Canada can emerge from Trump’s trade war with a stronger, independent economy

Carney cited the Pacific Link pipeline as evidence of a changing relationship, saying it would create more than 140,000 jobs and generate revenue for social programs.

His greatest joy came when he said the pipeline would reduce Canada’s dependence on the United States.

“Be careful, they might think it’s election interference. A little tricky,” Carney joked, drawing laughter. He was referring to U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra’s warning to Canadian politicians not to interfere in the U.S. midterm elections.

Tanya Clemens, co-chair of the pro-independence group Let Alberta Decide, acknowledged that Carney presents a challenge.

“He’s formidable, that’s for sure,” Clemens told the Associated Press.

Clemens, however, argued that Carney’s agreements with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith constitute “small promises” that do not resolve long-standing grievances with Ottawa.

Keith Wilson, another Let Alberta Decide leader, rejected Carney’s argument that global instability made it not the right time for the vote.

“Worst time for this, why? I don’t understand what the logic is,” Wilson said. “So this is the best time for him to return to Ottawa.”

Wilson said Carney should ask Parliament to repeal federal measures that separatists say have harmed Alberta, including authority he says could be used to tax oil exports in retaliation against the United States. He predicted that Carney would eventually impose such a tax, although Carney said he saw no value in using Canadian energy exports as leverage against the United States.

“There’s just one more cabinet meeting left,” Wilson said. “He’s going to do it. He has to do it.”

READ MORE: Carney pitches Canada to global investors amid trade war with Trump

Smith, who requested the vote but supports remaining in Canada, cast her ballot Wednesday and said she voted for Alberta to remain in Canada. She said support for separation remained too high for her liking.

“Canada can still function,” Smith said after the vote. “We just need to make some changes.”

Daniel Béland, a professor of political science at McGill University, called Carney’s popularity in Alberta “very unusual” for a Liberal prime minister. He said Carney also benefited from a “Trump effect,” as Trump’s trade war and threats from the 51st state rallied Canadians around their leader – even in Alberta.

From the political margins to the provincial vote

The referendum marks a remarkable rise for a cause long relegated to the margins of Alberta politics. After the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Freedom Convoy, activists who had organized against vaccination mandates and other restrictions turned their attention to Alberta independence.

The convoy began over vaccine requirements for cross-border truckers, but morphed into a broader protest against pandemic restrictions, paralyzing downtown Ottawa and blocking key Canada-U.S. border crossings.

Clemens said COVID accelerated the movement by teaching people how to organize politically and become more involved in party politics. She added that separatists also see Monday’s vote not only as a step toward independence, but also as a way to give Alberta leverage in negotiations with Ottawa.

Early voting will continue until Saturday and the final vote will take place on Monday.