See you soon, September.
Gladly.
With this week’s NFL games on October 1st, it’s time to put the stench of my September picks aside. It wasn’t great.
I went 8-8 in a row last week and 6-9-1 against the spread. This brings my record to 29-19 for the season. My ATS rating is a dismal 21-26-1.
Let’s just say I’m glad October is here.
The first two weeks of October are where we start to get a real gauge of NFL teams. We find out who is a pretender or pretender.
This makes selecting games a little easier. I hope anyway.
The goal now is to get over 0.500 ATS. Then it’s time to act like a competitor.
Let’s go.
All lines via DraftKings; All times ET
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns (+2.5)
- Thursday, 8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime
Can you believe this is a big game in the AFC North? Both teams are 2-1 and the Browns are one of the surprise teams so far. The Steelers looked good last week, beating the Bengals, but the Browns played well against them in Cleveland. Special upset. The Browns come in at 3-1.
Take: Browns 21, Steelers 20
Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders (+3.5)
- London Sunday, 9:30 a.m. on NFL Network (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
Both teams won for the first time last week and now travel to London to play this week. Then the Colts defense showed improvement last week, while the Commanders defense made some big plays. Look for the Colts and Commanders to score a lot, but it’s the Colts who will win late.
Take: 31 Colts, 30 Commanders
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills (-7)
The Patriots are on the road for the second week in a row and they are coming off a poor performance in Jacksonville. Drake Maye is in trouble. This will continue here. Josh Allen is getting back on track after a mediocre game last week. The bills earn him,
Take: Bills 30, Patriots 17
New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears (-3.5)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
The Jets are playing on the road for the second straight week, while the Bears are playing a short week. Chicago looked good in knocking off the Eagles on Monday night. It appears that Tyson Bagent will be the quarterback. Expect Chicago to keep rolling until they reach 3-1.
Take: Bears 23, Jets 17
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
The Bengals are back home after two weeks on the road, losing to the Steelers last week. The Jaguars beat the Patriots last week, but it’s a tougher challenge with Joe Burrow and that passing game. The Jaguars lead the league in defense, but that won’t hold up here. The Bengals take it.
Take: Bengals 23, Jaguars 17
Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) vs. New York Giants
The Giants didn’t do much on offense in last week’s win over the Titans, but the weather was brutal. The Cardinals are coming off a road loss to the 49ers, but they did some good things in this game. Against a lesser opponent than San Francisco, I think Arizona will find a way to win.
Take: Cardinals 24, Giants 21
Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
The Eagles looked awful Monday night in the loss to the Bears, while the Rams blew a lead in Denver on Sunday night. It’s a long journey to try to make up for that. The Rams play well on the East Coast, but I think this will be a refocused Eagles team. They take a close one.
Take: Eagles 30, Rams 27
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
These two are currently hurting in many spots, but the Bucs will be without quarterback Baker Mayfield. That means rookie Jalon Daniels will make his first NFL start. It’s a challenge, even at home. Look for Jordan Love to play better here as the Packers get a well-deserved win.
Take: Packers 27, Bucs 21
Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens (-11.5)
This is the Derrick Henry Revenge game. The Titans let him walk three seasons ago, and Baltimore is glad they did. Look for Henry to be the focal point of the offense. The Titans are currently lifeless on offense and they are playing back-to-back games on the road. It won’t be pretty.
Take: Ravens 33, Titans 14
Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans (-2.5)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
The scheduler did the Cowboys a disservice by putting them on the road after the loss to the Ravens in Brazil. The 0-3 Texans return home for the third time in three weeks. The defense was better last week and I think that will be the difference here. The Texans offense will also be better than it has been in recent games.
Take: Texans 24, Cowboys 18
Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)
- Sunday, 4:05 p.m. on Fox (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
This is a tough road game as the Dolphins face Minnesota’s stout defense, led by former Dolphins coach Brian Flores. You know he’ll be excited to play against the team that fired him. Miami’s offense will be without star runner De’Von Achane, making the task even more difficult. Look for the Vikings defense to get takeaways that will lead to points. The Vikings are big.
Take: Vikings 27, Dolphins 10
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
It’s a battle of undefeated teams. Few people saw this coming. Both teams have off-road victories. These matches are always fun to watch, the rivalry being what it is. But the Chiefs will win because Patrick Mahomes is having a big day.
Take: Chiefs 29, Raiders 24
Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3)
This is one of the best games of the week. The Broncos are coming off an impressive win against the Rams on Sunday night. The 49ers improved to 3-0 behind Brock Purdy. Look for it to continue here. Purdy has a big day as the 49ers remain undefeated.
Take: 49ers 28, Broncos 21
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-7)
The Chargers are 0-3 and just lost to the Bills after a long road trip. The Seahawks were upset last week by the Commanders. This will get their attention, which won’t be a good thing for the Chargers. Look for this Seattle defense to stand out against Justin Herbert.
Take: Seahawks 30, Chargers 20
Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
The Panthers are really banged up and Bryce Young is dealing with a bunch of other injuries. They played shorthanded in last week’s loss to the Browns. The Lions won a high-scoring game against the Jets on Sunday and this one will be a reflection of this one. Look for Jared Goff to play well here as the Lions win a road game.
Take: Lions 31, Panthers 26
Atlanta Falcons (+3) vs. New Orleans Saints
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
The Falcons impressed last Thursday by eliminating Green Bay on the road. Bringing Michael Penix back at quarterback is important. They’ll continue to give it to Bijan Robinson in this one. The Saints will have theirs behind Tyler Shough. That’s a high score and the Falcons will win it.
Take: Falcons 33, Saints 30
Gn sports
