Property tax amendment falls short of 60% support needed to pass, but many remain undecided, UNF poll finds

JACKSONVILLE, Florida. – The highly controversial Amendment 3, regarding property tax exemptions on real estate properties, is far from reaching the 60% threshold it is expected to pass in November, according to a new poll of likely Florida midterm election voters by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL).

Only 50% of 1,471 respondents indicated they would vote “yes” to the amendment titled “Increasing Homestead Exemption; lower cap for non-homestead property assessment increases,” which would increase the property tax exemption on homestead properties over time, other than those designated for schools.

READ: Complete results and methodology of the UNF PORL survey

Thirty percent of respondents fall firmly in the “no” camp, but a notable 14 percent say they are unsure how they will vote on the amendment.

“This appears to be another close race that will ultimately depend on which direction the last-minute undecideds take,” explained Dr. Sean Freeder, PORL faculty director and professor of political science. “Most of these (undecided) voters would have to vote yes for Amendment 3 to exceed 60%, a difficult but possible outcome.”

Interestingly, Florida voters who have lived in the state longer are more likely to oppose the amendment than those who are new to Florida.

Although support is higher among registered Republicans than among Democrats or Independents, it is not clearly split across party lines. The poll found that 32% of Democrats indicated they would vote “yes” and 23% of Republicans would vote “no.”

And the ads you’ve seen in opposition or support of Amendment 3 could have a big impact, Freeder said.

“Political science research shows that it’s easier to use messages to convince voters about policy rather than candidates, so each campaign’s last-minute advertising could make a big difference,” Freeder said.

Environment versus economy

The survey also found that 61% of respondents prioritize environmental protection, even if it hampers economic growth and development.

On the other hand, 26% believe that economic growth and development should be prioritized, even if the environment suffers to some extent.

A majority of registered Democrats (78%) and independents (62%) said they favor protecting the environment more than economic growth, as did a large share of Republicans (48%).

Newer transplants to Florida tend to be more supportive of economic growth and development, while those who have lived in Florida longer lean toward environmental protection.

“We find that positions on issues such as taxation and development versus the environment are more traditionally Republican-leaning among those who have moved to Florida in the last 10 years compared to those who have lived there longer,” Freeder said. “Despite the belief by some that transplants from other states are making the state bluer, this data instead suggests that newcomers may actually be behind Florida’s recent status as a solidly red state.”

Close races

The poll also found remarkably close races for Florida governor and the U.S. Senate seat, and Freeder said turnout will be key in those elections.

But polls can’t determine how many voters will vote, he said.

In the latest poll, Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by 2 percentage points in the Florida gubernatorial race, while Republican U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democratic challenger Angie Nixon by 4 points.

Donalds vs. Jolly: Where Florida gubernatorial candidates stand on AI, data centers and Amendment 3

The poll found 49% support Donalds and 47% support Jolly. Moody leads Nixon 49 to 45 percent. The overall margin of error is plus or minus 2.81 percentage points, meaning the governor’s race is within the poll’s margin of error. Five percent of respondents were undecided in the Senate race.

The results show narrower leads than the lab’s July poll, which had Donalds ahead by 5 points and Moody by 8.

“Although Donalds enjoys a slight advantage, these numbers suggest a competitive gubernatorial race,” Freeder said.

He said the narrow election could reflect domestic political factors, including the difficulties the president’s party often faces in midterm elections.

Independent voters favor Jolly by 16 points and Nixon by 15 points, according to the poll.

Respondents were asked which gubernatorial candidate they trusted the most on a few different issues important to Florida voters.

When it comes to data centers41% said they trusted David Jolly more and 37% said Byron Donalds. Respondents were roughly divided on affordability and cost of livingDonalds with 42% and Jolly with 43%. More respondents expressed confidence in Byron Donalds when it comes to property insurance at 43%, compared to 38% for Jolly.

Not surprisingly, the overwhelming majority of each candidate’s supporters trust them the most in each of the three areas; however, there has been some crossover in the areas of data centers and property insurance.

Seven percent of Jolly supporters trust Donalds more when it comes to insurance, and an equal percentage of Donalds supporters trust Jolly more when it comes to data centers.

The survey also looked at campaign messages during the Senate race. Twenty-five percent of respondents said Republican messages about Nixon’s ties to the Democratic Socialists of America made them less likely to vote for her; 12% said it made them more likely, while 55% said it made no difference.

Asked about Democratic messages about a grand jury report from Hope Florida and Moody, 30% said it made them less likely to vote for Moody, 9% said more likely and 53% said it made no difference. Among independent voters, 38% said the message made them less likely to vote for Moody.

“Independents favor Nixon by 15 points and also seem more concerned about Moody’s ties to Hope Florida than Nixon’s ties to socialism,” Freeder said. “Given the anti-incumbency mood of undecided voters, Donald and Moody’s success depends on Republicans not falling too far behind Democrats in turnout and enthusiasm.”

The survey was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish from October 12 to 19. The lab said it weighted the results to reflect Florida’s electorate and that estimates for smaller groups had larger margins of error.