With sabotage, cyberattacks and airspace violations increasing across Europe, fears are growing of a further escalation of Putin’s situation, according to two NATO diplomats, who were granted anonymity to speak freely.
Anxiety is also palpable in Spitsbergen. In Barentsburg, “we don’t talk about (political) topics,” said a St. Petersburg waitress who asked that her name not be used, while acknowledging that residents fear a possible war between NATO and Russia. “Of course it worries us,” she said.
“There is of course this constant debate about whether the Russian government wants to push a NATO member and whether Svalbard is the place they would do it,” said Jonatan Svensson, an expedition guide who has lived in Longyearbyen for five years.
To allay these fears, NATO should consider carrying out air patrols over Svalbard, moving its defensive air assets to northern mainland Norway and holding joint exercises nearby, the two NATO diplomats said, provided Oslo agrees and the measures comply with the Svalbard Treaty.
However, so far, NATO has no public plans to strengthen its naval or air presence around the islands. But some fear that the alliance’s current position will not be enough to deter Moscow.
In theory, it would be “really easy” for Russia to occupy Svalbard, said Ståle Ulriksen, a lecturer at the Royal Norwegian Naval Academy, if it brought in special forces from northern Russia and seized the airport. However, he believes that such a scenario is unlikely.
Yet Moscow would not need to launch a full occupation. According to analyst Myklebost, Russia could stage an emergency affecting its local citizens and send in crisis management forces, a move that may not clearly trigger NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause.
“The worst-case scenario would be a situation in which Moscow sees an opportunity to test NATO cohesion,” she said. “Maybe Norway calls on its allies for help, and then Donald Trump says, ‘No, we’re not risking our good deals with Russia on this little island.'”
Gn world
