Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran for more than 12 hours on Friday in an effort to reach an agreement to restart direct negotiations between the United States and Iran and avoid the outbreak of war after the midterms, according to diplomatic sources.
- Discussions will continue on Saturday in Doha, Qatar.
Why it’s important: The United States is just days away from a possible military operation that would inflict enormous damage on Iran and likely lead to retaliation against Israel and a host of Gulf countries.
Driving the news: A diplomatic source said Qatari mediators were in regular contact with the White House during Friday’s session.
- “There has been positive progress. Talks are still ongoing with the aim of reaching an agreement between the United States and Iran,” the source said.
- The Qataris are pushing the United States and Iran to agree on a series of reciprocal measures that would be implemented within days and return the sides to direct negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program and other issues.
- A U.S. official said two competing demands have stalled the negotiations so far: the Trump administration’s insistence that Iran make nuclear concessions as part of resuming negotiations, and Iran’s demand that the United States first lift its naval blockade, release frozen funds and allow it to sell oil.
- The Qataris are trying to convince Iran to allow U.N. inspectors to visit its bombed nuclear sites, as part of a confidence-building measure to which the United States would respond with some sanctions relief.
The plot: Within Trump’s inner circle, opinions differ on what he should do.
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are highly skeptical that a nuclear deal with the current Iranian regime can be reached. They believe Trump’s legacy should be to further weaken the regime, including through further strikes, a US official said.
- The person said that although Vice President Vance and Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner want to resume negotiations, Trump remains skeptical that Iran will ever agree to a deal he finds acceptable.
- “There are talks. They want to talk. They continue to talk. … We have time, frankly. It’s a war, but it’s not a typical war,” Trump told reporters Friday.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is leading an economic pressure campaign dubbed “Operation Economic Outcast,” is one of Trump’s closest aides, urging him to let the initiative play out rather than rushing into combat.
Zoom out: Regional countries including Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have urged Iran to agree to resume negotiations before the midterms, a regional source said.
- A U.S. official said Trump may be more inclined to order a major military operation if Republicans lose badly in the midterms.
- “If he feels embarrassed or disenfranchised, he will do something bold. That’s what everyone is telling the Iranians. Their best chance to reach a deal is now,” the official said.
- A White House official said the election results would not be a factor in Trump’s decision-making on Iran.
- Saudi and Turkish leaders have urged Trump in recent days to give more time to diplomacy.
- At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pressuring Trump to launch a joint operation against Iran immediately after the election.
The big picture: A new war could lead to massive destruction not only in Iran but in the Gulf countries, thus worsening the global energy crisis.
- Iran has pledged to respond to any US strike on its energy infrastructure by attacking oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.
- Any US attack on Iran would be carried out jointly with Israel. Iran would likely retaliate with missile strikes, while Hezbollah could also launch attacks against Israel.
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