Rebel groups intensify attacks as Iranian regime faces growing armed challenge

A new coalition of Iranian opposition groups in the Islamic Republic’s restive southeastern provinces of Sistan-Baluchistan and Kerman has launched a series of armed attacks against the mullahs’ rule in the region.

The six strikes claimed by the coalition known as the People’s Fighters Front (JMM) have contributed to instability in the provinces, raising pressing questions about whether armed resistance against the clerical regime in Tehran will expand and whether the regime can retain control of Sistan-Baluchistan, which is a predominantly Sunni Iranian province.

Iran is largely a Shiite Muslim country, and Iran’s Sunni minority has faced discrimination over the decades. Sistan-Baluchistan is the second largest of Iran’s 31 provinces.

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Sistan-Baluchistan, Iran. (Mohammad /Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

Mardo Soghom, an Iran expert who has written extensively on the Islamic Republic, told Fox News Digital: “Sunni unrest can strain the regime’s military and internal security capabilities and have a psychological impact on its forces, in addition to what they experienced during the 40-day operation led by the United States and Israel.” Armed groups would not be able to establish control of the southeast, but they could seriously weaken the regime’s control.

He added: “Whether these forces receive help from the Islamic Republic’s adversaries – namely the Gulf Arab states or even Israel and the United States – remains open. »

Protesters and members of Iran’s Basij paramilitary forces march next to the Khorramshahr fourth-generation Khaibar ballistic missile displayed during an anti-Israel rally to show solidarity with Palestinians in Tehran on November 24, 2023. (Photo by Hossein Beris/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

According to an October report from the Human Rights Activist News Agency (HRANA), “the pace of violence has accelerated significantly in recent weeks (in the provinces) with 18 incidents recorded in just the last 18 days of the reporting period, surpassing the total for any previous full month.” »

The JMM merged into an opposition coalition in December 2025 through an amalgamation of Baloch nationalist organizations with the Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl.

HRANA documented “that at least 63 armed incidents were recorded in the provinces of Sistan-Baluchestan and Kerman, southeastern Iran, between March 31 and October 10, 2026, amid a sharp escalation of armed violence in the region.”

Armed resistance left “at least 94 dead and 33 injured, while official sources report 87 dead and 10 injured.”

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A female member of the Basij paramilitaries, affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, holds a machine gun on a van during a parade of pro-government Iranian women. (Sobhan Farajvan/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images)

The Baloch coalition stunned the regime on October 14 with the assassination of female Basij paramilitary members, including a commander and a police officer in Sistan-Baluchistan province. The Basij has been designated a terrorist entity by the US government because it falls under the US-classified terrorist movement, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Just days before the attack on Commander Basij, Iranian regime-controlled media reported that Nosrat Eftekhari, deputy for cultural and social affairs of the provincial law enforcement command, was killed by a roadside bomb in Zahedan, Sistan and Balochistan provinces.

Jason Brodsky, political director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), told Fox News Digital: “There have been periodic cycles of unrest in Sistan-Baluchistan province over the years. situation in the country. »

Brodsky added: “I don’t see any imminent threat in terms of such a takeover, but a red line for the Iranians, especially in the opposition, is to preserve the territorial integrity of Iran. This must be understood in Western capitals.”

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The Artesh, Iran’s regular army, is separate from the IRGC and its affiliated Basij militia. Its forces operate through four branches: ground forces, navy, air force and air defense. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Khalilullah Balochi, a Baloch activist and journalist, told Iran International that “the activities of these groups are not new; what is new is the intensification of the attacks.”

The JMM’s devastating attacks targeting the brutal Iranian regime have attracted the attention of Iranian dissidents and experts.

Navid Mohebbi, who worked as a Persian media analyst for the State Department’s Bureau of Public Affairs, told Fox News Digital: “The recently formed Fighters’ Popular Front has carried out a series of relatively successful attacks on mid-level regime officials and security personnel in Sistan-Baluchistan province in recent months, attracting some public attention.

He warned, however, that “Nevertheless, Iranian public opinion remains deeply cautious and largely distrustful of these groups. Two major concerns underlie this distrust: the possibility of separatist ambitions and the influence of radical Islamism, which is fundamentally at odds with the increasingly secular vision of Iranian society. »

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Iranians gather by blocking a street during a protest in Tehran, Iran, January 9, 2026. (MAHSA/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

Mohebbi sees encouraging signs from the JMM, including “the coalition’s recent statements, unlike the rhetoric traditionally associated with similar groups, contain no explicit reference to Baloch separatism. Instead, the coalition identified its main objective as dismantling the Velayat-e Faqih (tutelage of the Islamic jurist) system and liberating the country from its oppression. She explicitly stated that she sought “an Iran for all Iranians.”

He added: “The reality is that these groups do not have the capacity to confront the regime in a conventional war. However, through guerrilla operations, they can inflict significant psychological blows on the regime and its security services.

Beni Sabti, an expert on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Israel, told Fox News Digital that the coalition had “a lot of weapons” and had created an “armed rebellion” against the Iranian regime in the provinces. He, however, clarified that the armed uprising is limited to the Balochistan region.

Tehran-born Sabti said the mullahs’ regime in the capital, Tehran, does not have strong control over the provinces, similar to parts of South America where some governments have lost sovereignty to militias.

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He said there were no journalists in the restive region. This makes it difficult to obtain exact information. Sabti said that “the IRGC has a headquarters there to fight against these Baloch.” The JMM coalition “can only continue to harm soldiers and, from time to time, kill a commander. There are many such local commanders in Iran. It’s not like an air force commander.”