- While Republicans struggle, Democrats are cutting back some spending in contests they think are in the bag, like the North Carolina Senate race.
- No one wants to overpay for a landslide, just like no one wants to spend money after a disaster.
The Republicans were forced to invest more than $100 million in Ken Paxton’s Senate race in Texas against Democrat James Talarico, and to advocate for millions more to defend Senate seats in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
- Call it political triage. Republican operatives make the kind of tough decisions that would be familiar to any battlefield medic: saving the wounded and saying a prayer for the lost.
Driving the news: Trump was in San Antonio on Wednesday to try to shore up Paxton — his second trip in less than a week to Texas, a state he won by 14 points in 2024.
- Over the past week, the president also campaigned in Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio and Nebraska. He’s planning another trip to Alabama this weekend for the Georgia-Alabama football game.
- Vice President Vance appeared in Alaska this week and will be in Ohio this weekend.
What they say: Republican efforts now appear more focused on appealing to party faithful to show up at the polls than on persuading new voters.
- “Whenever they buy (ads) on their side, it’s always in red states,” said JB Poersch, chairman of the Senate Majority PAC, the Democrats’ main outside group working to win the Senate.
- “Some of these outside groups (GOPs) like the Senate Leadership Fund and others are going to have to figure out where their money is better spent,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who lost the GOP primary to Paxton.
- “It looks like the money has already started flowing.”
Zoom: After pulling out of North Carolina (which Trump won by 3 points) last Friday, the SLF — the leading Republican Senate super PAC — invested an additional $14 million in normally deep-red Kansas.
- This week, he sent a $5 million “insurance policy” to South Carolina (which Trump won by 18 points) to bolster Republican Sen. Darline Graham.
The other side: Democrats are removing some ads, but in states where polls have solidified in their favor. Their spending reflects confidence, not worry.
- After the Senate Republican PAC cried “uncle” and pulled out of North Carolina, the Senate Democratic group decided to move in as well.
- One of the Democratic group’s ad bookings for North Carolina — which was actually in the Greenville, South Carolina, market — was gobbled up by an allied group, Fresh Start SC PAC, which will take the opportunity to attack Graham.
Between the lines: There are also gerrymandering campaigns in House races, but they are not yet as pronounced.
- The GOP’s Congressional Leadership Fund pulled $1.1 million in advertising in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, one of three GOP-held seats where former Vice President Harris won in 2024.
- Democrats followed suit, with the House majority PAC canceling the $1.1 million it had set aside for the race. Both parties appear to agree that there is no obvious path for Republican Brinker Harding to win the seat vacated by incumbent GOP Rep. Don Bacon.
- In one San Diego-area House district, the Democratic group withdrew $200,000 from advertising in a redistricted seat that Harris would have won.
Zoom out: Republicans insist their reallocation of funds does not mean they admit the House or Senate is lost.
- One thing neither party disputes: The Senate Leadership Fund, which is closely associated with Majority Leader John Thune (RS.D.), is well capitalized.
- This allows him to support candidates in red states, which would not be necessary in a better political environment. In Texas, one of its subsidiaries spent $131 million in 17 days, or more than $7.7 million per day.
- The group announced an additional $4 million for the Alaska race, bringing the total to $21 million for Sen. Dan Sullivan, who is being challenged by former Rep. Mary Peltola.
- In Maine, he set aside another $8 million, for a total of $50 million for Sen. Susan Collins, who is in a battle with Democrat Troy Jackson.
- In Michigan, he is investing another $2 million, for a total of $53 million for former Rep. Mike Rogers in his race against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.
- And in Ohio, he’s spending another $14 million, bringing the total to $93 million for Sen. John Husted, who is running against former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D).
What we’re looking at: All eyes are on Georgia. SLF announced an initial investment of $44 million to support Republican Mike Collins, but Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has a healthy lead.
The bottom line: Republicans may view bad polls as noise or the result of liberal bias.
- But their concern is evident in their thunderous ads in red states like Kansas, South Carolina and Texas.
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