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LUFKIN — Texas Republicans lost considerable ground in rural Texas Tuesday night, a significant factor in the party’s historic wipeout.
Voters in many of the state’s most reliably red counties either stayed home or did the once unthinkable and pulled the lever in favor of a Democrat, according to a Texas Tribune analysis.
About 90% of the counties that experienced a decline in voter turnout were rural.
And state Rep. James Talarico, who made history by becoming the first Democrat to win one of Texas’ U.S. Senate seats since 1988, has narrowed the gap with Republican voters in rural counties by about 10 percentage points since 2018, the data shows. And he outperformed Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 margin in suburban counties by about 15 percentage points.
Taralico’s performance — while not a knockout blow in places like Midland and Nacogdoches — should serve as a warning to Republicans, said Drew Landry, a political science professor at South Plains College in Levelland.
“It shows us that you can’t take rural Texas for granted,” Landry said. “The Republicans really tried everything to gain support, but they didn’t want to talk about the big issues and they paid the political price.”
Democrats in other statewide elections also outperformed in rural areas, including Clayton Tucker, who will become the first Democrat to lead the state agriculture department since 1990. Tucker formed a near alliance with incumbent Commissioner Sid Miller, who lost the Republican primary in March. Miller has for months suggested a doomsday scenario for Republicans.
Certainly, Democrats are still far from winning the rural Texas vote outright. However, the party long removed from power in Texas has made monumental inroads that have propelled it to the top. Now the question is: what can they do to keep this momentum going?
“We just need someone to come here and not stay, but come every once in a while and ask if we’re OK,” said Guessippina Bonner, a former Lufkin City Council member. “People would react to that.”
Mixed turnout in rural Texas
Texas voters broke turnout records, including in rural and exurban counties. However, the increase has not been uniform. Urban voters have increased their turnout by almost 8 points since 2022. Meanwhile, rural voters have only picked up the pace by about 1.4 points.
Voters along the Louisiana border and in west-central Texas, in particular, appeared to stay home. Meanwhile, voter turnout increased along the southern border and in the Panhandle.
Bonner, who has served as a sounding board for many East Texans, said his Republican friends were discouraged by the choices presented to them.
“There were Republicans here in East Texas who didn’t turn out to vote,” Bonner said. “Because they did not appreciate and did not respect what the party said.”
Rural counties typically account for less than 10% of the total votes cast in Texas, according to Tribune data. Rural votes made up about 9% of the total votes cast in 2022. In 2026, that percentage fell to about 8%.
In other words, about 800,000 rural Texans voted this year, compared to about 1.3 million who voted in Harris County, the most populous county in the state that includes Houston, during the same period.
“Republicans lost because they didn’t give rural Texas enough reason to show up,” said Suzanne Bellsnyder, a conservative political analyst who worked for Gina Hinojosa’s winning gubernatorial campaign. “They lost their insurance policy.”
Bellsnyder, which also publishes a Panhandle newspaper, saw the number of Democratic votes double from 50 to 100 — a significant jump for the county of about 5,000.
In Lubbock County, a historic stronghold of ruby-red Republicans, Talarico won nearly 41% of the vote, compared to O’Rourke who won 35% in his 2018 Senate bid.
The last Democrat to win 40 percent of the vote in Lubbock County, Landry said, was Ann Richards in 1990.
“It’s great,” Landry said. “That’s what Democrats have always needed in a place like here.”
Rural voters were not heard
Rural voters likely had a long list of issues that influenced their vote.
Landry, the political scientist, said the rhetoric around funding for public education and data centers, as well as national frustrations such as high food and gasoline prices, appeared to be key motivators among rural voters.
And Republicans weren’t talking about how to solve them.
Instead, Landry said Republicans have focused on hyper-political social issues, such as rolling back transgender rights, and that hasn’t won over voters.
“Usually the Republicans have a lot of momentum in these rural areas where it doesn’t matter what the Democrats say,” Landry said. “They didn’t want to talk about data centers or the economy, and this was the only time the answer was right in their face and for the first time in 30 years, they didn’t get it right. »
Miller placed the blame on Gov. Greg Abbott, who lost his own re-election bid, and his crusade for a private school voucher program, unpopular in rural Texas.
“Rural Texas had no one to vote for tonight,” Miller said. “They felt betrayed.”
Miller said Texans raised concerns about data centers, THC bans, school vouchers or transmission lines before the GOP’s devastating losses Tuesday. However, he said all Republicans have stopped listening to the people and instead focused on their donors.
“When you stop listening to people, you deserve to lose and that’s what happened,” Miller said.
Democrats, on the other hand, had a message that appealed to voters. They focused on affordability, public schools and data centers, Bellsnyder said.
Democrats can build on the progress they’ve made this year if they stay focused on these issues, Landry said.
“Democrats still have to come out and win votes,” Landry said. “Everything that’s been done here could either be expanded or completely reset by 2028.”
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