- Trump won 55% of Latino voters in Texas in 2024 exit polls, carried 14 of 18 counties within 20 miles of the border and won all four counties in the Rio Grande Valley.
- Poll shows Trump disapproval ratings have skyrocketed among Texas Latinos since 2024.
Zoom: The reversal is most striking in TX-15, where Rep. Monica De La Cruz was one of the GOP’s most visible symbols of its breakthrough in South Texas.
- Trump would have won the newly drawn district by 18 percentage points in 2024. De La Cruz won his 2024 race under the previous map by 14 points.
- Cook Political Report moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up on September 25, saying public and private polls show the race was tied or even in favor of Tejano singer and Democrat Bobby Pulido.
In figures: Democratic campaigns and allied groups are spending more than Republican campaigns and groups on Spanish-language ads in two of three competitive House districts covering the Rio Grande Valley, according to AdImpact data reported by the Texas Tribune.
- In TX-34, held by Vicente Gonzalez (D), Democratic campaigns and groups spent $2.7 million on Spanish-language ads, compared to $1.6 million on the Republican side.
- During TX-15, Democratic groups spent more than twice as much as Republican groups on Spanish-language ads.
- TX-28 bucks the trend: Republicans narrowly outspent Democrats on Spanish-language ads to unseat Henry Cuellar (D).
Zoom out: TX-34 is also a Toss Up, while TX-28 is Lean Democratic.
- The newly redesigned TX-35 went from likely Republican to lean Republican.
- House Majority PAC launched another round of ads in TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34 on Tuesday, championing two Democratic incumbents while continuing to target De La Cruz.
The bottom line: A new NBC News/Telemundo poll shows Latinos favoring Democratic control of Congress nationally between 59% and 35%, a 24-point advantage, or about double the margin the same poll found for Democrats in 2024.
- A recent TelevisaUnivision poll found that Latino voters in the three competitive Texas House districts went from a 44% to 44% split in their 2024 presidential vote to 56% to 36% Democratic in the 2026 congressional runoff.
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