AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, Swimming pool
The senator Roger Marshall (R-KS) finds itself in a surprisingly tough re-election battle for a state that has elected Republicans to the U.S. Senate for nearly a century, and a recently released Democratic internal poll bluntly highlights some of the reasons why.
Marshall is partly dragged down by the president that of Donald Trump poor polls and other headwinds against the GOP in this midterm election year, but there are several factors unique to its race.
Last month, The New York Times published an in-depth review of Marshall’s medical career. The senator worked as an obstetrician-gynecologist for more than 25 years and, according to court records, had sued more than 700 of his own patients for unpaid medical bills, leading to the arrest of 81 of them.
THE Times The report sparked outrage because many of Marshall’s patients were struggling financially and lived in a rural area.
Adam Hamiltonpastor and Democratic candidate, emphasized economic issues in his campaign messages and sought to position himself as a moderate.
CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten said this week that he’s seeing a “perfect mathematical storm” between Trump and Marshall’s favorability questions and Hamilton’s appeal that “could be the equation that lands Kansas its first Democratic senator in 94 years.” On Tuesday, the Cook Political Report moved the Kansas Senate race from Lean Republican to Toss Up.
A recent poll gives Hamilton a single-digit but steady lead, and a new internal poll released by Hamilton’s campaign illustrates the challenges Marshall will face to retain his seat.
The poll was conducted by GBAO between September 30 and October 4 among 600 likely voters in Kansas and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
When asked who they supported in the Senate race, 46% said Hamilton, 41% Marshall and 7% Libertarian candidate. David Graham.
“The poll is clear: The more Kansans get to know the candidates, the more Hamilton’s standing improves and the weaker Marshall’s gets,” the poll note states.
Hamilton was “widely known,” the pollster continued, but still had positive favorable numbers (38% favorable, 29% unfavorable). On the other hand, Marshall “is hated by half of the electorate (33% favorable, 50% unfavorable),
more than four in ten Kansans are “very unfavorable” (41%).
“Even a fifth of Republicans (21%) are unfavorable to Marshall,” the pollster wrote.
A major issue for Marshall was the report that he was suing his own patients, with the investigator attributing the senator’s declining numbers to this new “breakthrough” and a recent “disastrous debate performance”:
(A)nearly three times as many people say that what they have heard recently about Marshall has made them less favorable than more favorable (42% less favorable vs. 15% more favorable). The open responses about Marshall reinforce that many have heard of him taking his patients to court.
In comparison, more say that what they heard about Hamilton made them more favorable towards him (28%) than fewer (23%).
This was, however, an open question, where the respondents’ disgust with the trial story really showed. Voters who said the news made them less favorable to Marshall were asked what they had “seen, heard or read about Roger Marshall in recent weeks,” and the pollster cited multiple blunt responses:
“He sent people to prison for medical debt. He was yelled at in public speaking engagements.”
“He arrests people for $50.”
“I read an article in the national newspapers that he was suing patients and some were getting arrested for as little as $50. Most were young mothers or pregnant women.”
“Let him send delinquent patients to prison. Let him do everything Trump tells him to do.”
“That he was given his (redacted) at the state fair, and maybe if he listened to the people he represents, he would know how angry they are with him.”
“I didn’t think it was possible for me to think less of this horrible, woman-hating, intellectually lazy jerk, but seeing him mercilessly attack 700 patients with lawsuits, sheriffs and 18% collection interest is disgusting.”
“A real bastard, a fake Kansan, took these innocent people to court, ruining the lives of our neighbors.”
“Brother literally steals from poor women.”
“He collects bills from some poor woman who apparently gave birth and then got her arrested for nonpayment. People should pay their bills, but some people are just incapable of doing that. And he charges like 16% on the balance, which is ridiculous. I just don’t think he’s the right person for the job. I don’t think he is (sic) has done a good job for Kansas or provided the support Kansas needs.
Read the voting note here.
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