- “The wall is broken. The enemy is inside the fort,” a national Republican politician told Axios. “We now fight hand-to-hand.”
- The Senate map, which once seemed impregnable to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (RS.D.), is now full of vulnerabilities.
- Democratic challengers are voting with a margin of error in more than a half-dozen deep red states, according to internal GOP polls.
The other side: “We’re nervous about Alaska. We’re nervous about Michigan. We’re still going to hold the Senate in the end,” another operative said.
Zoom: Two weeks ago, when the Senate Leadership Fund decided to take out a $5 million “insurance policy” in South Carolina, its operatives took a hard look at Idaho, South Dakota and Mississippi.
- At the time, they concluded they didn’t need to spend money in those states, according to a person familiar with the matter.
- But Senate Republicans are currently considering the Mississippi race and may need to spend money there to protect Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith from a surprisingly competitive bid from Democratic Attorney Scott Colom.
- Senate Majority PAC, the main super PAC of Senate Democrats, announced a $1.2 million investment in the race on Tuesday.
Zoom out: In early June, the SLF began reinforcing a red wall in the Midwest to protect the Republican majority, setting aside $28 million in television advertising in Ohio and $11 million in Iowa.
- Those investments jumped to $93 million in Ohio and $53 million in Iowa.
- After an initial $5 million purchase in South Carolina, SLF’s spending increased to $8.5 million, according to AdImpact. And a super PAC linked to Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) is spending another $500,000 in South Carolina.
- The SLF, which is tied to Republican Senate leadership, has set aside $14 million for Kansas and has spent nearly $12 million there so far.
- “No Republican seat is safe this cycle,” another operative told Axios.
What we hear: Some Republican Senate candidates actually look safe this cycle.
- Republicans aren’t too concerned about Sen. Ashley Moody in Florida or Mike Rounds in South Dakota.
The plot: The National Republican Senatorial Committee raised $31.4 million last month, but its coffers appear depleted. He took out a $20 million loan as he spends aggressively on his coordinated campaign strategy.
- SLF ended September with $155 million in liquidity, according to its FEC filing.
- The group has spent or booked $169 million on video ads since Oct. 1, according to AdImpact.
- Even President Trump promised to release another $100 million before Election Day in an article published Tuesday on Truth Social, bringing his super PAC total to $400 million.
The bottom line: The Republicans can still maintain their majority in the Senate, but no poll gives them much confidence in their ability to achieve it.
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