A pollster for Senate Republicans was met with disbelief Saturday after telling GOP donors and operatives that they could increase their majority in November’s midterm elections, sources told Axios.
Why it matters: “Delusional,” an attendee at the National Republican Senatorial Committee retreat in Sea Island, Georgia, told Axios after pollster Erik Iverson’s presentation. “The mood is not good,” said another.
- “I think most of the participants here are politically savvy and realistic about the headwinds Republicans face,” said a third.
- A fourth attendee described conversations at the event as Republicans sarcastically told each other “we’re winning” and “everything is fine.”
- The Sea Island Fall Retreat is a major event for NRSC donors each cycle, attracting large donors, senators and their senior staff.
The details: Iverson, a The former chairman of the Montana Republican Party suggested that Republicans could gain a Senate seat after the midterms, but did not provide a state-by-state explanation of how they would do it, sources said.
- Another source in the room said Iverson’s comments came in the context of a question about the 2022 midterm elections, when Senate Democrats won a seat despite former President Biden’s poor poll numbers.
- Some in the room laughed when an audience member asked if that meant Republicans would also take a seat, the source said.
What he says: “I told attendees that I think all of the incumbent Republican senators will keep their seats because we have good candidates who are well funded,” Iverson told Axios.
- “And I pointed out that in 2022, President Biden’s image was double digits underwater in every Senate seat, but the Democrats still won a seat. The message was for people to hold their heads high,” he added.
- Iverson presented survey results on gas prices and data centers at a separate event earlier last week, according to slides obtained by Axios.
- It indicated that 60% of swing voters would consider supporting new data centers in their state if they met community demands, such as paying all their energy costs and not negatively affecting the local water supply.
Between the lines: Attendees wondered why they hadn’t received a full update on each race.
- Texas’ surprisingly competitive race was not discussed at all, some sources noted.
Zoom: Other speakers Saturday included NRSC Chairman Tim Scott (RS.C.), Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (RW.Va.), Senate Majority Leader John Thune (RS.D.), and NRSC Political Director Brendan Jaspers.
- There was also a panel with Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) and Senate candidates Julia Letlow (Louisiana), Kevin Hern (Oklahoma), Andy Barr (Kentucky) and Harriet Hageman (Wyoming).
The big picture: Top Senate Republicans openly acknowledge they will face a difficult situation in November.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told Axios on Wednesday that it’s a “challenging environment.”
- The NRSC itself is asking for $9 million from donors to help in three states — Alaska, Iowa and Ohio — where President Trump won a double-digit victory in 2024, as Axios won on Thursday.
Editor’s note: This story has been corrected to note that Iverson presented survey results on gas prices and data centers at a separate event earlier last week (not at the Sea Island event on Saturday).
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