Customers shop at a grocery store on September 10, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois.
Scott Olson | Getty Images
Wednesday’s closely watched consumer price figures could show intensifying inflationary pressures as energy costs continue to rise.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the overall consumer price index for September to rise 0.6% for the month and 3.6% from a year ago. This 12-month figure would indicate that the rate of price growth is accelerating and moving away from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
So-called core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.2% from August and 2.5% year-on-year. Although this would mark a slight slowdown from the previous month, it would represent a slight increase in inflation year over year.
Upward risk
Oil-related prices could push the overall figure even higher, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a tax firm.
Energy costs have been a key driver of inflation since the start of the U.S.-Iran war earlier this year. President Donald Trump last week announced an easing of diesel restrictions on Russia in a bid to boost global oil trade, although analysts do not believe it will lead to a significant drop in prices.
Price for Brent Crude, the global oil benchmark, climbed more than 14% in September, bringing its third-quarter rise to around 42%. Brent prices traded around $105 per barrel on Tuesday.
“We have a real upside risk for September CPI,” Brusuelas said. “Typically, when we see such inflation developments, all models underperform the actual outcome.”
Sticky oil prices could also drive up product costs in other non-energy categories, according to Robert Sockin, chief U.S. economist at asset manager PGIM. In this scenario, it would be increasingly difficult for the Fed to view the surge in energy prices as a short-term shock that would not require an increase in interest rates.
After announcing its first rate hike in three years last month, the Federal Reserve indicated in meeting minutes that it will likely have to raise rates again. Fed funds futures traders expect the central bank to raise rates at its December policy meeting, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.
“The list of reasons to raise rates is, in our view, long,” Sockin said. “Ultimately, we have low confidence in the timing of the Fed’s next move, but more conviction in the direction it should take.”
Wednesday’s release is the final CPI reading before November’s midterm elections, which could determine whether the Republican Party will maintain full control in Washington.
Economic confidence, regardless of political affiliation, has fallen this year, according to consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan. Compared to Democrats, Republican and independent voters have seen a steeper decline in trust since the start of 2026, the data shows.
Economists forecast that the producer price index, a gauge of inflation that wholesalers face on Thursday, will rise 0.6% from August to September and 5.5% year-over-year. These two figures would mark a slight acceleration in growth compared to the August publication.
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