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Rates of shingles have fallen sharply among young American adults, with the first generation eligible for routine childhood chickenpox vaccination now in their 20s.
That’s according to a major study by Epic Research, which analyzed the electronic health records of more than 85 million adults.
The largest decline occurred between those born between 1991 and 1995 and those born between 1996 and 2000.
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“Shingles is caused by a virus harbored in peripheral nerves – varicella-zoster, the same virus that causes chickenpox – that can remain dormant and reactivate later, particularly under stress or other diminished immune responses, leading to the risk of shingles,” said Dr. Marc Siegel, senior medical analyst at Fox News Digital.
Rates of shingles have fallen sharply among young American adults, with the first generation eligible for routine childhood chickenpox vaccination now in their 20s. (iStock)
About 46 out of 10,000 people in the older group were diagnosed with shingles, compared to just 17 out of 10,000 people in the younger group, a 62% decrease.
The study period was from January 2017 to June 2026, with results published on October 2, 2026.
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Overall, shingles is much more common in older people. About 182 out of 10,000 people born between 1968 and 1975 were diagnosed with the condition, compared to just seven out of 10,000 people born between 2006 and 2008.
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“Shingles diagnoses increase sharply with age, but the most recent signal is a sharp decline that begins among those eligible for the childhood chickenpox vaccine in the mid-1990s,” study author Kersten Bartelt, a clinical researcher in Verona, Wisconsin, told Fox News Digital.
“This is the pattern we would expect if childhood chickenpox vaccination reduced the risk of developing shingles later in life.”
About 46 out of 10,000 people in the older group were diagnosed with shingles, compared to just 17 out of 10,000 people in the younger group, a 62% decrease. (iStock)
If the trend continues as vaccinated groups age, it suggests that childhood chickenpox vaccination could provide a lasting benefit in reducing shingles, “which is something that continued monitoring and research will clarify,” Bartelt added.
Siegel agreed that this data is consistent with previous research showing that by preventing the initial infection via the chickenpox vaccine (“or by inducing a very mild version of a live virus vaccine”), the risk of shingles is significantly reduced.
“This is the pattern we would expect if childhood chickenpox vaccination reduced the risk of developing shingles later in life.”
He noted that the vaccine uses an attenuated form of the virus, which is much less likely to reactivate later in life and cause shingles.
The study had some limitations, including that researchers did not determine whether individual patients actually received the chickenpox vaccine as children.
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“This is a descriptive, observational study, so it shows associations rather than causes and effects,” Bartelt said.
Health care disruptions due to the COVID pandemic in 2020-2021 may also have affected diagnosis rates and skewed results, the researchers noted.
One doctor noted that although people who have received the chickenpox vaccine have a lower risk of developing shingles, he still recommends that eligible people get the shingles vaccine to further reduce this risk. (iStock)
Future studies are needed to confirm a link between childhood vaccination history and long-term outcomes of shingles.
“People should continue to follow established vaccine recommendations and discuss the shingles vaccine with their clinician when they are eligible,” Bartelt advised. “It also reminds us that shingles can occur in young adults, so anyone experiencing a painful, blistering rash should seek timely evaluation.”
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Although people who have received the chickenpox vaccine have a lower risk of developing shingles, Siegel said he still recommends that eligible people get the shingles vaccine to further reduce that risk.
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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends shingles vaccination for adults 50 and older, as well as some immunocompromised adults 19 and older, including people who have previously received the chickenpox vaccine.
Gn Health
