Signs of panic around Trump and the Republican Party are growing ahead of the midterm elections
Republicans have long had reason to worry about the 2026 midterm elections.
But there are growing signs that their fears are turning into panic — and that the Republican Party, including President Donald Trump, senses that things could get really bad.
It doesn’t mean anything will it happens like this. And there are plenty of examples of parties pressing the panic button too zealously late in the campaign.
But the Trump-era GOP has generally been a pretty optimistic political party, and what we’ve seen in recent days and weeks is just the opposite.
Trump insisted that Republicans would do well and that numerous polls suggesting otherwise were false. But his actions are increasingly moving in a different direction:
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On Monday, he pulled a rare 180 on his highly controversial government-funded political ads, saying they would now be paid for with Super PAC funds.
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Over the weekend, he began encouraging Republicans to vote by mail, after previously claiming the method was riddled with fraud.
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He has lashed out repeatedly, including throwing the f-word at a Time magazine interviewer last week and angrily defending his poll results to a CNN reporter on Monday.
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He has made a habit of blaming the Republican Party’s problems on bad messaging (but not on himself).
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He spent time campaigning in a series of very red states: Alabama (which he won by 31 points in 2024), Oklahoma (Trump +34) and Nebraska (Trump +20) — the last of which he visited on Monday.
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And on Monday evening, he attacked the Democratic candidate for Senate in another state that should not be on the map: South Carolina (Trump +18). He used an anti-transgender slur to attack Democrat Annie Andrews, who is giving Sen. Darline Graham — whose nomination Trump has pushed for — a tougher race than expected.
The GOP was already playing a defensive role in five states Trump won by between 11 and 16 points, the most recent being Kansas – a state that Trump won by 16 points two years ago and which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.
But adding Nebraska and especially South Carolina to the mix is particularly striking.
The road to the 2026 midterm elections begins now
And lest you think Trump’s comments about South Carolina weren’t strategic, the Republican Party is sending $5 million to the Palmetto State to support Graham. Trump allies also told CNN they were concerned about the senator’s poll numbers.
One of the most telling signs of a broader Republican Party panic? Republicans feel compelled to distance themselves from Trump, even in these red zones — whether it’s calling for an end to the war in Iran, overhauling their websites to erase mentions of the president, or refusing to campaign with Trump.
On Monday, the Houston Chronicle reported that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott would not appear with Trump during the president’s visit to San Antonio this week. Abbott’s campaign blamed scheduling conflicts, but those were the kind of events GOP candidates would never have missed, especially in a red state.
And indeed, many of the worst signs for the GOP are emanating from Texas.
There’s the awkward ad from Senate candidate Ken Paxton’s ex-wife (who accused him of infidelity) in which she encourages people to vote Republican. There are leaked audio clips in which Paxton complains that Trump and the national Republican Party are hurting his campaign. And on Monday, Republican state Rep. Briscoe Cain posted on X: “If the election were tomorrow, all statewide races would turn blue. »
Just to emphasize how staggering that would be, the Democrats didn’t win. any A statewide race in Texas since 1994. And this is not a moderate Republican speech; he’s a MAGA lawmaker who tried to help overturn the results of the 2020 election for Trump.
None of this means the GOP is doomed. While there are enough signs in the polls to worry the party, Democrats’ path to the Senate majority still runs through these double-digit Trump states. That’s a high bar to clear.
And we’ve already seen how parties can spend late money in lower-level races that don’t end up being particularly close. In 2020, Democrats spent real money in Kansas, and the GOP sent money to shore up South Carolina; Republicans ended up winning these states by 11 and 10 points respectively. Even some Democrats are rather cautious about their chances in South Carolina this year.
But increased desperation as Nov. 3 approaches means it could be a long four weeks for the GOP.
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