South Florida vs. UTSA Tonight Prediction, Picks and Odds: Week 6 College Football

Updated: October 8, 2026, 4:37 p.m. ET

• 4 minutes of reading

A well-tested UTSA team will take on South Florida, which has enjoyed a breezy schedule thus far.

There is an exciting matchup tonight between the South Florida Bulls and the UTSA Roadrunners. Both schools enter at 4-1 as I make my South Florida vs. UTSA Prediction.

My College Football Picks expect the Roadrunners to deliver the Bulls’ first real test of the season, as South Florida has played a relatively easy schedule thus far.

It all starts on Thursday, October 8 at 7:30 p.m. ET.

BEST CHOICE
Who will win South Florida against UTSA tonight: UTSA -7.5

It’s the UTSA Roadrunners or nothing for me in this spot, mainly because there are few battle wounds that this South Florida Bulls team has had to endure. Of course, that came off a tough loss to Temple, who at least played against Penn State. But the Bulls’ schedule is marked by Easy Street.

Meanwhile, the Roadrunners played Texas a week before the Longhorns faced Tennessee, giving UTSA a useful test to prepare for the rest of the season. Additionally, they took down a very strong Texas State team that also racked up almost 350 total yards against Texas in Week 1.

In addition to concerns related to the strength of the schedule, the The Bulls don’t rely much on their passing game and only attempt 25.2 passes per outing, which ranks 124th in the country. Only 42.6% of their emissions are by air. So if they have to play from behind, as the spread alludes to here, will South Florida be efficient enough to move the ball downfield? I doubt it, as the Roadrunners are 77th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game.

Don’t take this number higher than it currently is. Try to find the key number of -6.5 or -7 if possible, but I always endorse -7.5.

INTEL COVERS: South Florida has relied so much on the run that the team is still waiting to throw its first interception of the season. This could cause problems for a school prone to playing from behind.

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South Florida Over/Under Pick vs. UTSA: Over 49.5

People will probably see that the Bulls are 10th in points allowed per game and instantly lean towards the Under. But again, who did they play against? Oh, Delaware State, Florida International and the Army. Their opponents are 10-14 overall this season.

This game sounds a wake-up call for a USF team that has yet to face a test. Meanwhile, the Roadrunners will try to force the ball down the throat of a defense that has faced little pushback since facing Army, a team with only a ground attack. UTSA relies slightly more on its running game than the school’s aerial attack, running the ball an average of 33.8 times per game.

UTSA’s run defense is the team’s most significant weakness, allowing 198.8 yards per game this season. However, most of that number is inflated by playing at Texas State and Texas. I still expect this game to have some points, with the Roadrunners able to take care of business on their end.

South Florida vs. UTSA Combo

If you combine the three choices above, you get a cool and sharp 4.71x. That’s a solid price to go in and out of the first half with the team you already love and cover the entire game, all while chasing points, points, points.

South Florida vs. UTSA Combo (4.71x)

• UTSA-7.5
• Over 49.5
• UTSA 1H -4.5

South Florida vs. Mainstay UTSA: UTSA First Half -4.5

With the gap in the first half being 4.5 points, don’t hesitate to take the Roadrunners to win the half. Additionally, if you add this in a small combo with the picks above, the potential return is over 4.00x.

South Florida is the fourth-worst first-half scoring team in college football this season, averaging four points. Meanwhile, UTSA ranks 47th in first-half points, racking up more than 15 per game in the first half.

Again, with this being the Bulls’ first tough game of the season, it will be interesting to see how they play against a talented Roadrunners team. UTSA should be able to cover 4.5 points in the first half, but if that wobbly number worries you, get them to come out on top in the first two quarters.

South Florida vs. UTSA odds tonight

To help you understand the odds, check out our odds calculator.

• Spread: South Florida +7.5 | UTSA-7.5
• More/Less: Over 49.5 (52%) | Less than 49.5 (48%)
• Money line: South Florida 29% | UTSA 71%

For the full list of college football games, check out our college football odds chart!

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South Florida and UTSA Weather

The game will be played inside the Alamodome.

Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date information on every game.

South Florida vs UTSA Trend to Know

The Over is 4-0 in the Roadrunners’ last four home games against a team with a winning road record. Check out more college football betting trends for South Florida vs. UTSA.

How to watch South Florida vs. UTSA

South Florida’s latest injuries vs. UTSA

Check out our college football injuries page for updates on each team.

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