SpaceX’s third quarter has just ended. Here are the 3 numbers that matter most to the stock.
EspaceX (SPCX +7.36%) ended its third quarter on September 30. Not only was this the rocket and artificial intelligence (AI) company’s first full quarter as a public company, but also the first full quarter for several transactions and price changes made around its June initial public offering (IPO).
At about $152 as of this writing, shares are about 13% above the IPO price of $135, but about 32% below the 52-week high of $225.64.
SpaceX has not yet set a date for the report. When it arrives, up to 1.3 billion additional escrow shares could begin trading on the second full trading day after the release.
Here are the three numbers that I think matter the most.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Starlink must hold $66 per month
Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet service, had 12.0 million subscribers at the end of June, double last year’s total. But everyone pays less. Starlink’s average revenue per user (ARPU) was $66 per month in the second quarter, flat with the first quarter, but down from $85 a year earlier. According to SpaceX’s quarterly report, the decline mainly comes from international expansion and cheaper service plans.
In May, Starlink increased the prices of most residential and Roam plans in the United States by $5 to $10 per month, with current customers paying the highest rates starting June 18. The third quarter is therefore the first full quarter at the new prices.
But management did not promise that the average would increase.
“While our geographic expansion may depress blended ARPU over time, we expect continued momentum in subscribers to drive strong revenue growth,” CFO Bret Johnsen said during SpaceX’s second-quarter earnings call.
I’d watch for both: ARPU of $66 or more and net adds around the record 1.7 million from Q2. If ARPU falls again even with higher U.S. prices, each new subscriber is likely worth less than the total suggests.
2. Anthropic’s first full quarter
In the second quarter, revenue from AI solutions and infrastructure (primarily Grok and X subscriptions as well as leased data center capacity) jumped to $2.2 billion. That compares to $475 million three months earlier and $311 million a year ago. Cloud services, which SpaceX just started offering that quarter, were worth $1.6 billion.
But these agreements were only just beginning. Anthropic, the AI company behind Claude, agreed in May to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity increases in May and June at a lower rate. At full price, this customer could generate about $3.75 billion in quarterly revenue, more than double what all of SpaceX’s cloud services generated during the second quarter.
Google, owned by Alphabetbegins paying the full $920 million per month in October. And if SpaceX hasn’t met the September 30 deadline to deliver promised hardware, Google can cancel or pay less after a one-month grace period.
Of course, Cursor, the AI coding company that SpaceX completed its purchase of on August 14, will likely also expand the broader AI portfolio. So the bar I would set would be cloud services revenue of around $3.75 billion or more, plus the information that Google’s hardware arrived on time.
3. Is Falcon flying more often again?
SpaceX’s space segment only brought in $962 million in the second quarter. But launch cadence (how often the company flies) helps determine how much capacity Starlink can sell. After all, 27 of SpaceX’s 37 Falcon launches in the second quarter carried their own payloads.
The number rose to 37, compared to 40 in the first quarter and 45 a year earlier. It also lags SpaceX’s rate of 165 Falcon launches in 2025, or about 41 per quarter.
“We are currently launching at our highest Falcon cadence,” Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX president and COO, said on the August call.
Space exploration technologies
Today’s change
(7.36%) $10.89
Current price
$158.96
Key Data Points
Daily scope
$149.34 -$159.84
52 week range
$104.83 -$225.64
Volume
119.9 million
Average flight
92.8 million
The third quarter total will show if that held, and I’d like to see Falcon get back above 41. Starship also flew twice in the third quarter, compared to once in the second. Its September 28 flight reached orbit and deployed 26 next-generation Starlink satellites.
The AI number matters the most
Of the three, I think the AI number carries the most weight. SpaceX spent $23.6 billion on AI capital expenditures in the first half of 2026, up from $3.3 billion a year earlier. A full quarter of Anthropic’s fees is the first real test of whether those expenses become revenue on time.
Yes, a strong report could clear all three bars. But with a valuation of around $2 trillion, investors are already paying to have most of that settled, and SpaceX lost another $541 million in the second quarter. I would like to see the AI number before paying around $152 per share.
Gn bussni
