Democrats’ path to the Senate majority is improving. In fact, recent polls show the party leading in three states that President Donald Trump will win by double digits in 2024: Alaska, Ohio and Texas. Democrats need at least two to win a majority.
But while it appears they might be able to clear that daunting threshold, other states are proving more difficult.
Polls in Iowa — which Trump also won by double digits — have been closer than some polls in Alaska, Ohio and Texas — including in a new CNN poll released Thursday.
And even though Democrats appear to be able to win some pretty red states, they’re still struggling to lock down swing and even blue-leaning territories in Maine, Michigan and arguably New Hampshire. (There are also questions about Minnesota, but data is limited there.)
The road to the 2026 midterm elections begins now
The idea that, a month before the midterm elections, Democrats would perform better in Ohio and Texas than in Maine and Michigan would have been called crazy a year ago. But that’s where we are.
So what do the polls tell us about why this is happening? Let’s dig.
The story here is not what the Democrats are doing seriously; it’s just that they don’t vote as well as they do in Alaska, Ohio and Texas – although Trump won all of those states by similar margins in 2024.
Recent quality polls show Democrats winning Alaska by 7 points, Texas by 6 points in a few polls, and Ohio by 6 and 8 points.
But even though the new CNN poll showed a 6-point Democratic advantage in Ohio, CNN’s Iowa poll was neck and neck, with Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson at 45 percent and Democratic Sen. Josh Turek at 43 percent. Other polls also show a fairly pure draw.
So why this difference?
The atmospheres don’t differ too much between Iowa and Ohio. In both states, CNN polls show that about three-quarters of likely voters said Trump’s policies have raised the cost of living, about 7 in 10 said gas prices have been at least moderate, and 55 to 58 percent said the tariffs have been bad for their state.
But Iowa seems a little less inclined to abandon Trump and the Republican Party. The president’s approval rating there (41 to 42 percent according to CNN and New York Times-Siena College polls) is not as low as in Ohio (36 to 38 percent). And the CNN poll shows that 53 percent of likely voters in Iowa prefer Republican control of Congress, while 52 percent in Ohio prefer Democratic control.
Turek’s frame count has also decreased a bit. A Fox News poll showed the Iowa Democrat’s net like going from +18 in June (51% favorable to 33% unfavorable) to +8 at the end of September (48%-40%).
Additionally, Hinson appears to have done a good job rallying his base. While 66% of her voters in the CNN poll say their vote is mostly about voting for her rather than against her opponent, only 44% say the same about Ohio Republican Sen. Jon Husted.
Maine
This blue state might be Democrats’ biggest headache right now.
A recent New York Times poll showed Trump’s approval rating more than 30 points underwater, but virtually all quality Senate polls are within the margin of error.
Some Democrats panicked when that Times poll showed Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 49 percent, compared to 46 percent for former Democratic Senate President Troy Jackson.
The big problem for them is that voters just aren’t in love with Jackson. His image was underwater in polls by the Times (41% favorable to 49% unfavorable among likely voters) and Marist College (43%-47% among registered voters).
And a CBS News-YouGov poll showed that only 47% of Democrats and independents said they were happy he was the Democratic nominee, compared with 53% who preferred someone else.
The Times poll also showed that 51 percent to 35 percent of likely voters said the state was heading in the wrong direction. It was the worst of all the states in which the Times polled for Senate elections.
(And that would explain why Collins spent much of Tuesday’s debate attacking Maine’s Democratic leaders.)
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed led by 5 points among likely voters in a Times poll and by 7 points among registered voters in a Marist poll. But other polls, like that of Fox News, show a race to the margin of error.
It’s clear that the close nature of the race reflects at least some voter uncertainty about El-Sayed, a left-wing candidate many Democrats were initially wary of nominating.
El-Sayed consistently trails Democratic gubernatorial candidate Secretary of State Joceyln Benson in polls. And its picture ratings are generally about equal.
A Times poll showed that 50% of likely voters said El-Sayed was the most extreme candidate in the race, compared to 36% who said the same of former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers. The Fox poll showed that 52% of voters worried that El-Sayed was too liberal — as many as the 54% who worried that Rogers was too close to Trump.
All of this helps explain why El-Sayed gets the fewest Republican voters of any Democratic candidate in a major Senate race, according to a recent CNN study. While other Democrats get double-digit support from Republican voters, he is in the low single-digit range, according to polls.
Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas has a lead over former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu in the latest quality poll. He led by 5 points in a Times poll and by 8 points in a University of New Hampshire poll.
But Democrats wish it wasn’t even that close, given that this is a state Kamala Harris won in 2024.
Part of the reason this situation is pretty close is that Pappas’s image is only OK (43% favorable to 44% unfavorable in the Times poll).
Another reason is that Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte is popular and primed for re-election at the top of the ticket. She led by 11 points in the Times poll.
And then there’s the identifying name that comes with Sununu. It’s not just that he comes from a famous New Hampshire political family; his brother Chris Sununu was a popular GOP governor until last year.
There is even speculation that some people think John E. Sununu East the former governor, and that helps him. The Cook Political Report recently cited this as a factor helping John E. Sununu, whose campaign signs do not include his first name. And the Washington Post recently discovered that some New Hampshire residents think Chris Sununu is the one running for Senate.
However, to the extent that confusion is a factor, it could be alleviated as voters are bombarded with more and more advertisements and begin to pay more attention to who is actually on the ballot.
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