Europe is once again trying to save face after US President Donald Trump caught the continent off guard by striking a tailor-made deal with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to release thousands of tonnes of previously sanctioned diesel.
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The news alarmed Ukraine and its European allies, who have long been wary of Trump’s unpredictable diplomacy and his understanding of what a just and lasting peace means.
Tensions between the two sides of the Atlantic have never fully subsided since February last year, when Trump unexpectedly called Putin and launched negotiations to end the war without first consulting any European leaders.
It was the beginning of a series of unexpected developments that shook Europe and upended its long-held ideas about the postwar international order. These include a hastily arranged Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, a leak of a 28-point plan highly favorable to Moscow, and a waiver of sanctions for Russian crude oil.
The diesel deal, announced Friday on Truth Social, added a new chapter.
Trump then resorted to a familiar pattern: public attacks against the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and calls for new elections. Ukraine’s constitution prohibits elections during wartime, a point Zelensky tends to remind Trump of.
“I suggest they choose a new leader who can make a deal, because he could have made many deals and for some reason he never does,” Trump said to applause from Moscow.
As in previous episodes, Europe finds itself in a difficult situation to close ranks, rally behind Ukraine and make clear that whatever the White House does and says, this side of the Atlantic will maintain the agreed course.
“I think we must be collectively serious. Today, I believe, we have no factual reason to change our position,” French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said imitating the Trump-Putin diesel deal was “out of the question” for Europe, despite rising energy prices.
“Russia will only negotiate seriously under pressure, and that is why we maintain our sanctions against Russia,” Merz told reporters.
A similar message resonated across Luxembourg as EU foreign ministers meet and insisted that the pressure campaign on Moscow would continue unabated. Some have openly denounced the diesel deal, calling it regrettable and worrying.
Foreign ministers also approved a record addition of 1,600 names to the list of sanctions, half of which are linked to the production of ballistic missiles that fall on Ukraine. The contrast between the EU and the US could hardly have been more stark.
“We showed unity today on these (1,600) registrations,” said High Representative Kaja Kallas after the meeting.
“But, of course, it would be much stronger if we had acted in concert with the United States. Our message to the United States is that only pressure works with Russia.”
United under tension
Although the Trump-Putin deal fits a familiar pattern of erratic diplomacy that sidelines European interests, its bleak context sets it apart.
The diesel deal comes at a time when Russia is rapidly escalating its attacks on Ukraine, killing many civilians and destroying the levers that support the local economy, including power plants, data centers, warehouses and railways.
The Russian blockade in the Black Sea left Ukrainian farmers unable to send tons of grain to their global customers and deprived the state of a critical source of revenue.
As economic activity stagnates and material costs pile up, the EU realizes its multi-billion euro support lines will not be up to par next year. With the United States excluded, the burden will fall on the pockets of Europeans.
The prospect of Russia selling previously sanctioned diesel and earning additional money to finance the bombs raining down on Ukraine is particularly difficult for kyiv and its allies to bear. It also raises serious questions about the extent to which the United States can be trusted to provide security guarantees in the post-war scenario.
And yet Europe’s collective assessment remains that there is still more to lose than to gain by separating from the Americans.
“What we need to do is refocus and redouble our efforts to keep the pressure on Russia,” Irish Foreign Minister Helen McEntee said on Monday.
“Our priority must be to maintain this pressure, but also to maintain our ties with the United States, because this will not be possible without the support of the United States.”
Just as news of the diesel deal broke, senior officials from Ukraine, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the European Commission and NATO were in Miami, Florida, for a series of talks hosted by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s special envoys.
The meeting was the first of its kind since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, which absorbed the White House’s foreign policy and relegated Ukraine to second place.
“We will continue to work with our partners as well as the United States to end this war, and the latest example was Friday’s talks in Miami,” the Commission’s chief spokesperson said, calling the meeting a “positive step.”
Europe initially struggled to get a seat at the negotiating table as Trump and Putin continued their private calls. It took months after European countries created the “Coalition of the Willing” to be included in the U.S.-led negotiating process.
Brussels’ statements confirm that maintaining a seat at the table where Ukraine’s future as a sovereign state and Europe’s security architecture will be decided takes priority over any diplomatic affront, no matter how pointed or public.
Zelensky, whose country is already suffering from power outages ahead of a winter that promises to be the harshest of the war, recognizes that the transatlantic alliance must prevail, despite the agreements that could be concluded behind its back.
“An energy ceasefire and other measures to reduce escalation and ensure security are truly necessary here – in reality, not only within the framework of Truth Social,” Zelenskyy said.
“We must end the war in Russia. We must guarantee security. We must be united. Europe and the United States.”
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