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Ordinary investors could invest a record $250 million in Anthropic stock on its first day of trading, according to Vanda Research.

The estimate, which would be more than double the $118 million in net retail purchases on SpaceX’s first day of trading in June, is based on an increase in derivatives trading linked to Anthropic shares that have not yet been listed on crypto exchange Hyperliquid.

Trading volume on the Anthropic-linked instrument hit a record $270 million on Tuesday, nearly triple last week’s daily volumes, according to Vanda strategist Viraj Patel.

Vanda found that retail stock trading activity on the opening days of recent IPOs, including SpaceX, was about five times the peak daily trading volume on their pre-IPO derivatives. Applied to Anthropic, the valuation would suggest a net purchase of $250 million on its scheduled listing day next week.

The projection carries considerable uncertainty. Derivatives trading represents an indirect measure of investor enthusiasm, and trends from previous IPOs may not be repeated.

Anthropic is targeting a valuation of $1.4 trillion, less than the $2 trillion previously discussed, as the AI ​​sector faces headwinds from rising borrowing costs, hedge fund deleveraging and political backlash over data center construction.