James Talarico’s lead over Ken Paxton in the crucial battle for the Texas Senate fell by one point according to two new opinion polls, which also showed that the number of undecided Texas voters was reduced.
Democrats hope to take control of the Senate in the November midterms, and a victory in Texas — a traditional Republican stronghold that last elected a Democratic senator in 1988 — would significantly increase their chances.
Friday saw the release of the latest Texas Public Opinion Research poll, which surveyed 1,007 likely Texas voters between September 19-22. The poll, which had a margin of error of 3.6 percent, found state Rep. Talarico leading current Texas Attorney General Paxton by five points with 49 percent of the vote to 44 percent.
The latest Texas Public Opinion Research survey, conducted Aug. 21-24 among 1,000 likely Texas voters, gave Talarico a six-point lead, with 48 percent of the vote to Paxton’s 42 percent.
It’s worth noting that the proportion of undecided voters also fell from seven percent in August to three percent this month, with Libertarian candidate Ted Brown also gaining two percentage points. However, the decline in support for Talarico remains within the margin of error.
Separately, a new poll from Texas Southern University gives Talarico a lead of just one point, with 47 percent of the vote to Paxton’s 46 percent and Brown’s 3 percent. This survey of 1,800 likely Texas voters took place between September 15 and 19 and has a margin of error of 2.31 percent.
By contrast, in the previous Texas Southern University poll, Talarico was ahead by two percentage points, with 47 percent to Paxton’s 45 percent and Brown’s another 2 percent. For this, 1,200 likely Texan voters were surveyed on July 27 and 30. But once again, the one percent reduction in Talarico’s lead is less than the margin of error. During the same period, the proportion of undecided voters fell from six percent to four percent.
News week contacted Talarico’s and Paxton’s senatorial campaigns for comment via email Saturday outside of normal business hours.
Other polls give Talarico an edge
Talarico leads Paxton according to eight different pollsters, although several are within the margin of error, and therefore too close to call.
An Emerson College poll, conducted September 12-14, gave Talarico a one-point lead with 47 percent of the vote, compared to Paxton’s 46 percent. The poll surveyed 1,000 voters with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Between August 30 and September 1, AARP surveyed 895 likely voters, giving Talarico a 4-point lead with a margin of error of 3.3 points. Similarly, a YouGov/Univision poll of 1,000 registered voters, conducted between August 27 and September 4, gave Talarico a 5-point lead, with a margin of error of 3.6 points.
Debate Challenge
On Thursday, Talarico challenged Paxton to a televised debate on Fox News during an appearance at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin.
He accused Paxton of “dodging debates all year,” continuing: “So let’s go to Ken Paxton’s safe space. Let’s do Bret Baier on Fox News. I will go into the lion’s den.
Funding
According to Federal Election Commission (FEC) figures, through June 30, Talarico’s official Senate campaign has raised $31,853,507, significantly ahead of Paxton’s campaign which has raised $9,147,100.
FED data showed that 45 percent of donations to Talarico’s campaign came from out of state, with California the largest contributor, compared to 17.1 percent for Paxton.
Contact Newsweek’s editor-in-chief for this story: Edward Pearcey.
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