Tesla Q3 Preview: Delivery Outlook, Cash Flow, and a Dash of Merger Speculation Within Reach
Tesla (TSLA) will report its third-quarter results after the closing bell on Wednesday, with the focus on earnings and cash flow, with a dash of merger speculation.
Tesla is expected to report third-quarter revenue of $28.13 billion, flat year-over-year, according to the Bloomberg consensus. Adjusted EPS is estimated at $0.44, with adjusted EBITDA of $3.66 billion.
Consensus EBIT of $760 million, or a margin of 2.7%, would be an increase from $400 million and 1.4% in the second quarter.
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Closing date: October 20 at 4:00 p.m. EDT
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Tesla stock is still down about 17% this year, a test for investors, but the company is generally recovering thanks to stronger deliveries in the second half.
Tesla deliveries announced in the third quarter of 486,532, down 2% from a year ago but well ahead of the Bloomberg consensus of 463,000. Energy storage deployments totaled 13.7 GWh, up from 12.5 GWh a year ago and 13.5 GWh in the second quarter.
Tesla’s sales in its key territories are moving in different directions. The United States is still feeling the loss of the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles, which sparked a purchasing rush in the third quarter of last year before it expired. Cox Automobile estimates that Tesla sold approximately 144.1 thousand electric vehicles in the United States in the third quarter, down almost 20% year-over-year. That still represented about 54% of the U.S. electric vehicle market, more than all other brands combined.
However, Tesla’s Shanghai recorded a wholesale volume of 95,366 vehicles in September, its best month of 2026, with exports up 58%, while domestic sales fell 9%. In Europe, Tesla registrations in the EU, UK and EFTA increased by 43.3% between January and August. by ACEA.
Free cash flow (FCF) is once again the number to watch, and it is expected to be deeply negative. According to Tesla sell-side analyst consensusWall Street sees third-quarter FCF at -$4.51 billion, with capital spending climbing to $7.77 billion for the quarter. A year ago, the FCF stood at almost $4 billion.
Tesla has planned more than $25 billion in investments for 2026, up from about $8.5 billion spent last year. The money goes to Optimus production lines, AI computing, the Cybercab ramp and the Terafab chip factory it is building with SpaceX.
Elon Musk made it clear this weekend where he thinks spending pays off. “Optimus and Cybercab will represent the vast majority of Tesla’s value,” Tesla CEO said on X on Saturday.
Tesla launched commercial Cybercab service in Austin on September 3, but federal regulators have questions. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued a special order to Tesla with 21 inquiries about how it self-certified the Cybercab, which has no steering wheel or pedals, as meeting federal safety standards. Tesla requested an extension until November 20. NHTSA granted 30 days insteadwith responses expected on October 30.
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