Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, left, and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa.
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Political observers are monitoring the Texas gubernatorial elections for signs of an artificial intelligence backlash in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday, and traders in the prediction market see increasing chances that the Democratic candidate will pull off the upset.
Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican seeking a fourth term, has a 60% chance of beating Democratic Rep. Gina Hinojosa on Tuesday, according to speculators on the Kalshi platform.
Hinojosa’s odds of victory rose from 8% in mid-July to 40% on Monday, with most of those gains coming in recent weeks as a series of polls showed the race tightening. On Polymarket, Hinojosa saw his chances increase from 5% at the end of July to 39% on Monday.
Contracts are resolved using data from the Texas Secretary of State’s office.
Odds and gambling platforms do not use the methodologies used by traditional political polls and therefore cannot replace political polls.
Hinojosa is seeking to become Texas’ first Democratic governor in more than 30 years. She used Abbott’s past support for data center development in the state as an attack on the incumbent.
In November 2025, Abbott touted a $40 billion investment from Google — which included bringing three new data center campuses to the state — saying Texas would be “the epicenter of AI development.” But Abbott changed his mind as voters’ views on data centers deteriorated over the past year.
Abbott in August ordered an audit of data centers seeking to connect to the state’s network, then in September he suspended approval of all data center-related permits until an audit of the existing waiting list was conducted.
Hinojosa is proposing an immediate moratorium on data centers until lawmakers put safeguards on the industry, according to his campaign website.
In-person early voting in Texas ended Friday and more than 7.7 million Texans have already cast their ballots.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority investment.
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