Texas is a Democratic blue mirage. Paxton and the Trump polls could shine a light on it

While experts disagree over CNN analyst Harry Enten’s claim Thursday calling Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton the least popular Republican Texas Senate candidate of the century, they largely agree that Paxton is an unusually polarizing politician.

That fuels Texas’ current political paradox: a Republican candidate with deeply negative favorability ratings who remains competitive in a state that continues to lean Republican while President Donald Trump’s ratings reach record highs.

Enten pointed to a CNN poll Thursday showing Paxton with a net favorable rating of -16 points and argued that no Republican candidate for Texas Senate this century has been underwater at a comparable stage in a campaign. As Paxton continues to display deeply negative image ratings, the Republican candidate remains stuck in a highly competitive contest against Democratic candidate James Talarico that is leading to record spending.

The Paxton campaign did not immediately respond to Information weeks request for feedback.

Is Ken Paxton really the Texas GOP’s most unpopular Senate candidate?

Not everyone agrees with Enten’s characterization.

Mark P. Jones, a political scientist at Rice University in Houston and a fellow at the Baker Institute for Public Policy, said: News week the answer depends on how popularity is measured.

“From a purely statistical standpoint, that’s incorrect,” Jones said.

He noted that outgoing Senator John Cornyn also faced significant image problems with part of the Republican electorate. But Jones said Paxton’s political situation differs in one important way.

“What’s different is the intensity,” he said. “Democrats dislike Paxton with a much greater intensity than they disliked Cornyn in 2020.”

At an event in Texas on Thursday, Trump said of Paxton: “He can be annoying sometimes, I’ll be honest.”

Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, said Paxton’s political responsibilities are forcing Republicans to spend heavily to defend a seat they would normally expect to hold.

“Paxton is a weak Republican candidate in a tough Republican year, so it will cost Texas and national donors many tens of millions of dollars to, perhaps, elevate Paxton over Talarico,” Jillson said. News week.

At the same time, Jillson argued that Paxton’s candidacy reflects a broader trend within the Republican Party of Texas rather than a complete break from it.

“Paxton is not unique in Texas Republican Party politics,” Jillson said.

Can Paxton win?

Despite these unfavorable ratings, Jones said Paxton remains very much in contention. “Right now we’re in a coin toss situation. It’s almost a tie.”

A polling average compiled by PollsMax on Thursday showed Talarico leading Paxton by just 0.2 percentage points, while other recent polls show results ranging from a narrow Democratic lead to a slight Republican advantage.

A Fox News poll released Thursday showed Talarico had an 8-point net positive personal rating, while Paxton was underwater. The poll showed that Republicans are six times more likely to have an unfavorable view of Paxton than Democrats do of Talarico.

Texas remains a Republican-leaning state, and many voters who have a negative opinion of Paxton might still be willing to support him over a Democratic alternative.

Republicans aim to bring down Talarico

Jones argued that Republicans face a difficult reality. “There is not enough money in the world to rehabilitate Ken Paxton’s image in the eyes of Texas voters,” he said.

At best, he added, the ad can help “at the margins” by humanizing Paxton.

Instead, Jones thinks Republicans will likely focus on changing perceptions of Talarico. “The real open territory raises disadvantages for Talarico,” he said.

The strategy reflects lessons Republicans have learned from previous statewide elections, including Sen. Ted Cruz’s 2018 battle against Democrat Beto O’Rourke.

Jones said Republicans were reluctant to repeat what some saw as a late effort to define O’Rourke before he gained significant statewide support.

What’s next

Early voting in Texas begins October 19 and continues through October 30, with Election Day set for November 3. The final weeks of the campaign could become a test of whether negative publicity can change the trajectory of an exceptionally close race.

Jones said Republican outside groups and Senate allies are starting to invest heavily in Texas after a relatively quiet summer. “The money is coming now, and it’s coming a little later than would be optimal,” he said.

With a flood of publicity expected, Jones said the central question is no longer whether Paxton can significantly improve his image.

Instead, he said, “it remains an open question” how effective the attacks on Talarico will be and whether they can shift enough voters to change a race that appears balanced.

For Democrats, the challenge is maintaining Talarico’s current position while avoiding the barrage of attacks that will come in recent weeks.

For Republicans, the task could prove even more difficult: winning a statewide race with a candidate whose approval ratings remain deeply underwater.

As Jones said, the question Paxton faces might simply be how much lower those numbers can go.

Newsweek Reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors about this story: Edward T. Cummins