The 2026 midterm exams are less than 2 weeks away. Which party has the best chance of winning? Here’s what the latest polls say.

The 2026 midterm elections are less than two weeks away. So where do things stand – nationally – in the race for control of Congress? Which party has the best chance of winning, you know? To get a sense of this, it helps to look at some cold, hard data.

The usual caveats apply, of course. Polls are not predictions; they are momentary snapshots of public opinion. Major events can and often do change the course of elections.

Still, the stakes in November couldn’t be higher, especially for President Trump, who benefited from complete Republican control of Congress during the first half of his second term. Flipping the House would give Democrats the power to block the president’s agenda, investigate his administration, and even impeach him (again); overturning the Senate would also allow them to thwart its Supreme Court nominees.

The state-by-state midterm landscape is finally taking shape – and some clear trends in the polls are emerging. Here are the numbers to watch as Election Day approaches.

The generic congressional ballot

Each pollster asks a version of the same question: If a U.S. Congressional election were held today, which party would you vote for in your district? In fact, this particular voting prompt is so ubiquitous that it’s known as the “generic ballot” (at least among political enthusiasts).

You obviously can’t guess the outcome of an entire midterm election from a single question that flattens 435 House elections into a binary choice between “the Democrat” and “the Republican.” But the generic ballot can suggest which direction voters are headed.

History helps here, thanks to the RealClear Politics polling average:

• At this point in 2022 — after more than a year and a half of Democratic President Joe Biden and Democratic majorities in the House and Senate — Republicans had a small but significant lead (2.4 percentage points) in the generic ballot. Two weeks later, the GOP translated its final 3 percentage point lead into nine seats — enough to flip the House.

• At this point in 2018 — with Trump as president and Republican majorities in the House and Senate — Democrats were leading by an average of 7.7 points on the generic ballot. Two weeks later, they won 41 seats and flipped the House.

• Polarization was not as extreme in 2014 and 2010, the two midterms of Democratic President Barack Obama; decisions were not made so early. But two weeks later, voters were clearly against the Democrats. In 2014, a 2.4-point Republican lead in the polls translated into a net gain of 13 seats in the House; in 2010 these figures were 9.4 points and 63 seats respectively.

So what does this mean for 2026? Historically speaking, a president’s party almost always loses seats when voters return to the polls to judge his first two years in office. Sometimes the negative reactions are so pervasive that the president’s party loses almost every close election – a phenomenon known as an electoral “wave.”

Right now, Democrats have a wave-sized lead on the generic ballot — about 9 percentage points on average — and that lead has continued to grow over the past month.

Democrats may not repeat 2018 and flip 41 House seats again in November, in part because Republican lawmakers in red states recently redrew congressional maps across the South to benefit their party in a way that Democrats in blue states have been unable to follow. But they only need to win three seats to win back the House.

Advantage? Democrats.

12 specific Senate races

National dynamics tend to define the composition of the new Chamber. But Senate elections are novel — more state-specific and personality-driven. Democrats currently hold 47 seats in the Senate; they would need 51 to control the room. (A 50-50 split would give Vice President JD Vance the deciding vote). Polls suggest it is entirely possible to flip four Republican seats. In states where Democrats are playing defense – Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire – their lead is consolidating; Meanwhile, red states like Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska and South Carolina look increasingly competitive. Here are the 12 races to follow:

Maine (Republican seat)

• Republican Susan Collins (incumbent)

What the latest polls say: Jackson, who replaced Graham Platner, the Democrats’ previous scandal-plagued nominee, tends to lead Collins by 2 to 4 percentage points. A recent poll shows a tie.

Michigan (Democratic seat)

• Republican Mike Rogers (former congressman)

• Democrat Abdul El-Sayed (public health epidemiologist and former health director of Wayne County, Michigan)

What the latest polls say: Twenty surveys were conducted over the past month. Eighteen of them showed El-Sayed in the lead, with a gap of 1 to 7 percentage points.

Ohio (Republican seat)

• Republican Jon Husted (incumbent)

• Democrat Sherrod Brown (former senator)

What the latest polls say: All but one of the polls taken in the last month show Brown leading Husted, by margins ranging from 1 to 8 percentage points.

Georgia (Democratic seat)

• Democrat Jon Ossoff (incumbent)

• Republican Mike Collins (Congressman)

What the latest polls say: Ossoff holds a solid lead over Collins, with October polls putting him ahead by an average of 8 percentage points.

North Carolina (Republican seat)

• Republican Michael Whatley (former chairman of the Republican National Committee)

• Democrat Roy Cooper (former governor)

What the latest polls say: Cooper leads by almost 10 points on average. The most recent poll gave him a lead of 14.

New Hampshire (Democratic seat)

• Republican John E. Sununu (former U.S. Senator)

• Democrat Chris Pappas (four-term U.S. Representative)

What the latest polls say: Pappas and Sununu previously traded poll positions in the race to replace outgoing Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. But Pappas appears to have built a substantial lead – average margin: 7 percentage points – over the past month.

Alaska (Republican seat)

• Republican Dan Sullivan (incumbent)

• Democrat Mary Peltola (former Congresswoman)

What the latest polls say: Surveys conducted in October show Peltola leading by 2 to 7 percentage points. But some September polls showed a tie, or Sullivan slightly ahead.

Iowa (Republican seat)

• Republican Ashley Hinson (Congressman)

• Democrat Josh Turek (state legislator and former Paralympic athlete)

What the latest polls say: Hinson and Turek have exchanged small leads in surveys released since the June 2 Iowa primary.

Texas (Republican seat)

• Republican Ken Paxton (state attorney general)

• Democrat James Talarico (state legislator)

What the latest polls say: Nearly every poll conducted over the summer shows Talarico leading Paxton, although the margins are small – between 1 and 6 points.

Nebraska (Republican seat)

• Republican Pete Ricketts (incumbent and former governor)

• Independent Dan Osborn (veteran and former union leader with Democratic support)

What the latest polls say: Investigations are rare. But the most recent results suggest Osborn could be competitive.

Kansas (Republican seat)

• Republican Roger Marshall (incumbent)

• Democrat Adam Hamilton (Methodist pastor who previously considered an independent candidacy)

What the latest polls say: Marshall leads by one point in the most recent poll — but this is the only survey conducted in the last month that shows him ahead. The rest (except a tie) gives Hamilton a slight advantage (between 1 and 5 percentage points).

South Carolina (Republican seat)

• Republican Darline Graham (incumbent, appointed to replace her brother Lindsey Graham after his death in July)

• Democrat Annie Andrews (pediatrician and former candidate for the United States House of Representatives)

What the latest polls say: Graham holds a narrow lead in recent polls. But it is low enough – between 1 and 3 percentage points – that Democrats are now targeting South Carolina as well.

Advantage? Democrats. They have steadily gained ground over the past month, to the point where they are now favored to flip the Senate… unless the polls are wrong.

Trump’s popularity rating, especially when it comes to affordability

To one degree or another, midterm elections are always referendums on the president’s performance. Trump is therefore the last piece of the puzzle.

For now, that’s bad news for Republicans on Capitol Hill and those seeking to join them.

According to Silver Bulletin journalists, 60% of Americans, on average, currently disapprove of how Trump is handling his job, compared to 38% who approve. This brings the president’s net disapproval rating to 22%.

Again, history can provide perspective. As of mid-September 2018, Trump was “underwater” by about 12 points; The Republicans lost 41 seats in November.

Trump scores even lower on voters’ top issue for 2026: cost of living. Soon after his return to office, roughly equal numbers of Americans approved and disapproved of the president’s handling of inflation. But today, 73% disapprove and 24% approve. This represents a gap of 49 points.

By comparison, Biden’s approval rating on inflation has rarely been more than 30 points lower during his presidency — a period that coincided with the economic shocks of COVID-19 and ended with him choosing not to run for re-election.

Advantage? Democrats.