Welcome to From the political officea daily newsletter bringing you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today’s edition, Bridget Bowman looks at a major development in the battle for Senate. Plus, Kristen Welker examines the headwinds facing the Republican Party as President Donald Trump begins his midterm tour.
—Adam Wollner
The changing map of the Senate
By Bridget Bowman
A big move today from a prominent Republican super PAC underscores the increasingly difficult Senate landscape the party faces as it tries to maintain its majority.
The Senate Leadership Fund, which aligns with the Republican Party’s leadership in the Senate, has canceled future ad spending in the battleground Senate race. North Carolina and launched a new advertising effort in dark red Kansas. (Semafor was the first to report the news.)
Republicans have been pessimistic for weeks about their prospects in North Carolina, former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper leading in recent poll and overtaking former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley.
SLF has been heavily involved in the race: In September, it spent more than $17 million, according to ad tracking company AdImpact.
President Donald Trump and vice president J.D. Vance each also visited the state last month to bolster Whatley, whom Trump personally encouraged to run as an incumbent Republican senator. Thomas Tillis‘ seat.
“I worry about him. I hope he wins,” Trump told reporters at Whatley today. “He’s a wonderful man.”
Republican Party confidence is also declining in another swing state, Georgiawhere the Democratic senator. Jon Ossoff also established a clear polling and fundraising advantage over the Republican representative. Mike Collins. But a person familiar with SLF’s spending noted that the group has not halted its spending in this race.
Meanwhile, in solidly Republican Kansas, the race between Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton has become more competitive down the stretch, even though the state hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. So far, SLF has reserved more than $8 million in air time in Kansas, according to AdImpact.
The diversion of resources to Kansas reflects the fact that the battle for control of the Senate has shifted to red states. Trump carried eight of the ten states in which the SLF spends money on advertising from October to Election Day. Vance is expected to travel to one of those states, Alaska, next week. (Continue reading below for more on Trump’s midterm travels).
Read more →
Trump raises midterm concerns as he begins 17-state tour
Analysis by Kristen Welker
President Donald Trump not only wants voters to pretend he’s on the ballot in these midterm elections, he’s also going to ask them for their support in person.
As NBC News reported yesterday, Trump is expected to travel to 17 states for 36 events in 30 days, according to a White House official. It’s an ambitious agenda that further emphasizes what the president told a crowd in Oklahoma last night: “We’re concerned.”
“We’re worried about Michigan. We’re worried about Texas. We’re worried about a few states,” Trump said, “but it’s 35 different contests; not states, but contests. And I’m going to pretty much all of them. I’m going to Alaska.”
There are a number of factors creating hurdles for Republicans as Election Day approaches, including the president’s record approval rating for his handling of the economy, which is the No. 1 issue for voters across the board.
Today, the final jobs report ahead of the midterm elections showed a slowing labor market and wages lagging behind inflation. The well-lower-than-expected jobs numbers come just as Trump is expected to rally in many rural and working-class communities.
At his rally in Oklahoma, he once again promised that “if the Republicans win, you will each have $5,000 in your pocket and economic success for our country like you have never seen before,” responding to the financial pressure felt by voters.
It’s not just the economy that faces headwinds for Trump: it’s also immigration. As a candidate, he promised to oversee the “largest deportation program in American history.” But his sweeping deportation policies have been deeply unpopular with Americans, including many Hispanic voters who helped him win in 2024.
So as Trump tours red states to motivate his base, one of the key factors determining the outcome of the November election will be the president’s standing with Latino and independent voters. NBC News polling averages show independents’ approval of Trump’s job performance at just 26 percent.
And this Sunday on Meet the Press, Steve Kornacki will reveal the results of a new NBC News/Telemundo poll of Latino voters. I will also speak to the former mayor of Chicago Rahm Emanuel and the senator. John KennedyR-La., about the upcoming midterm fight.
🗞️ Other news of the day
- 🗳️ Exclusive: In an interview with Henry J. GomezVice-president J.D. Vance the senator spoke. Ted CruzPresidential aspirations and how a difficult midterm climate could influence his own future. Read more →
- 📈 Analysis of the figures: After suffering massive voter registration losses following the last presidential election, Democrats regained ground in several key states this year, according to an analysis by NBC News’ Decision Desk. Read more →
- 👋 See you on the other side: A statistically unproductive Congress has officially left town until after the midterms, handing a long list of tasks to this lame-duck session. Read more →
- 🛢️Oil watch: G7 member countries have agreed to release tens of millions of barrels of diesel fuel and crude oil, the latest step by industrial economies around the world to curb soaring gas prices. Read more →
- 🤖 New frontiers: Trump should name director of national intelligence Jay Clayton as the White House’s artificial intelligence czar. Read more →
- 🎭 Moving to the city center: For the first time in the ceremony’s nearly 50-year history, the Kennedy Center Honors will not be held inside the John F. Kennedy Memorial Center for the Performing Arts this year. Instead, it will take place at Capital One Arena. Read more →
That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. Today’s newsletter was written by Adam Wollner.
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