Published on
The so-called Doomsday Study is already 66 years old, but it is probably the most famous study on the end of the world. In 1960, researchers used a mathematical formula to calculate the end of humanity on Friday, November 13, 2026. The article with the provocative title “Doomsday: Friday, November 13, AD 2026” was written by Austrian-American physicist Heinz von Foerster and his research team and published in the prestigious journal Science. (source in German).
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
Key message and context of the Doomsday study
The researchers analyzed historical data on the world population over the past two millennia and fitted a growth curve to it. Their projection was that if the current growth rate of humanity on Earth was extrapolated unchanged into the future, the curve would reach an infinite value in November 2026.
So by tomorrow, Friday, people would have multiplied infinitely. The mathematicians’ logical conclusion was that on that day humanity would, in purely mathematical terms, be “crushed” by overpopulation.
The study caused a worldwide sensation at the time, and that was exactly the intention. By setting the date for Friday the 13th, Heinz von Foerster especially wanted to draw attention to the issue of overpopulation, which was then the subject of intense debate. Until the early 1990s, the curve matched the actual numbers remarkably well. Subsequently, the growth of the world population slowed considerably, which is why current projections tend to expect a stabilization around 10 billion people.
Why the “end of the world” is not coming
The world’s population continues to grow, but more and more slowly. At first, the number of people increased sharply because there were fewer deaths. Later, families around the world began having fewer children. The fastest growth occurred in 1963, at more than 2 percent per year. By 2020, this growth had fallen below 1 percent.
According to United Nations (UN) estimates, the number of people on Earth will peak in the mid-2080s at around 10.3 billion. After that, the world’s population will slowly begin to decline again.
Friday is not the first end of the world announced
By 1910, there was widespread panic about Halley’s Comet. Newspapers warned of the presence of toxic gases in its tail that could wipe out all life. Some traders exploited this fear and sold gas masks, protection pills or “comet umbrellas”. But the comet passed and nothing happened.
Later there were repeated dates like this. An American radio preacher predicted that Judgment Day would be May 21, 2011. On December 21, 2012, a cycle of the Mayan calendar ended, which many also interpreted as the end of the world.
Even science has been wrong sometimes. In 1972, the “Limits to Growth” study warned that we might soon run out of vital raw materials. But people have found new sources and solutions, and many products have even become cheaper.
The problem with such predictions is always the same: past trends are simply projected into the future. This ignores the fact that people react to problems and adapt. This also applies to November 13, 2026. Humanity has developed differently than was calculated 66 years ago.
So if you’re thinking now that you can finally tell your boss what you really think, because it’ll all be over by Friday anyway, you might want to think again.
Gn world
