The number of students is falling inexorably. Today, there are 160,000 fewer than in 2025. A record. It is even more edifying when we look forward ten years from now: France will then have lost 1.7 million students. These figures are dizzying. But this is not a discovery. Demographics do not take us by surprise. In the recent past, the closures of small maternity wards, the contraction of public services and the scarcity of medical supply could already alert us to the difficult times ahead for certain regions. Only certain regions, since not all are equal in the face of population decline. Near the ocean or the sea, and close to urban centers that provide jobs, the reality is not the same as in the center and north-east of the country. Not to mention the great forgotten: the rural world.
The double punishment
For the “well-off”, the school card will not be too damaged. On the other hand, for less attractive areas, it will be a double penalty: already with a shortage of inhabitants, they must expect closures of establishments which will make them even less attractive for families. A vicious circle. Like medical white zones, the specter of school deserts looms on the horizon, despite the efforts of local authorities to maintain schools, middle schools and high schools. The figures are stubborn: unless the criteria are relaxed, disappearances will increase. Because applying a stupid and nasty accounting rule amounts to condemning dozens of school groups to death. A heartbreak for the villages, engaged in a losing class struggle against Excel tables. In short, there is an urgent need to imagine the school of tomorrow in vulnerable sectors. Listening to the mayors would also be a good start. Before wielding, from Paris, the red pen which marks out a class, then a school, then an entire village.
