Trump’s winning 2024 coalition, made up of Hispanics and younger voters, tilted heavily toward Democrats.
Voters across the country from diverse demographic groups supported Democrats in overwhelming numbers on Tuesday, giving the party control of both houses of Congress, a stark rebuke to President Donald Trump and the Republican Party agenda.
Rural areas, suburbs and big cities have all tilted toward Democratic candidates by double digits in the 2024 elections, according to a Washington Post data analysis Wednesday at 1:30 p.m. The critical coalition that fueled Trump’s White House victory two years ago, including Latinos and young people, has shifted sharply toward Democrats.
Midterm turnout is lower than in presidential election years and almost always leans toward the party of the sitting president. But those results include new record vote shares for Democrats, who won in several states for the first time in decades — and for nearly a century in the case of Kansas.
Democrats successfully defended competitive seats in Michigan and Georgia while flipping seven Senate seats – in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas – held by Republicans, some of which Trump won by double digits in 2024.
The groups that have changed the most
Change in margin compared to the 2024 presidential election
To the Democrats
To the Republicans
Hispanic-majority counties
Counties where the majority of voting age citizens are Hispanic. Most are found in Texas and New Mexico.
Trump made historic gains with Latino voters in 2024, but Democrats won back some of those voters nationally — and even made additional gains of their own in Texas, where voters elected the state’s first Latino governor.
Low-income counties
Counties where the median household income is less than $60,000.
Republicans still won a majority of votes in low-income counties across the country, but by narrower margins than two years ago.
Younger counties
Counties where the majority of citizens of voting age are between 18 and 44 years old.
Trump increased his party’s share of Generation Z voters and won a slim majority of young men two years ago by promising to lower prices and avoid wars. But the nation’s youngest counties became more Democratic on Tuesday.
Rural counties
Counties where most adults live in small towns and rural areas.
Tariffs and the war in Iran have also taken a heavy toll on agricultural communities, increasing the cost of feed, fuel and fertilizer, and fostering democratic gains.
Here’s a look at some of the most telling changes in the key Senate races:
Michigan
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official, significantly improved Democratic margins in Michigan’s lowest-income counties in his victory over Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman.
Low-income counties in Michigan
Michigan counties where the median household income is less than $70,000.
Kansas
Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch pastor, defeated Sen. Roger Marshall (R) with strong support in the Kansas City suburbs where his church is located. But the state’s largely rural western and central regions — traditionally conservative — have also shifted away from Republicans.
Rural Kansas Counties
Kansas counties where most adults live in small towns and rural areas.
Texas
Voters in predominantly Hispanic areas around San Antonio and along the border helped drive Democratic Rep. James Talarico’s victory in Texas over Ken Paxton, the state’s scandal-plagued Republican attorney general. This shift also carried over into the gubernatorial race, where Gov. Greg Abbott (R) was unseated by state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D).
Majority-Hispanic Counties in Texas
Counties in Texas where the majority of voting age citizens are Hispanic.
South Carolina
Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, made significant gains among white voters with lower education levels in South Carolina. Andrews unseated Sen. Darline Graham (R), who was nominated to fill the seat held by her brother, Lindsey Graham.
White and non-college residents
Counties in South Carolina where the majority of residents over the age of 25 are white and do not have a bachelor’s degree.
About this story
Live election data is from the Associated Press as of 1:30 p.m. on November 4. The House data only includes districts with at least 90% of expected votes, meaning that Western districts, including California, Oregon and Colorado, are poorly represented in this analysis because their votes are counted after those of Eastern and Midwest states. Past election data comes from Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
To calculate historical county and district population rates, The Washington Post used five-year data from the Census Bureau’s 2024 American Community Survey. Education and race estimates are based only on a county’s adult citizen population. Populations are identified as urban, suburban, small town, and rural based on the National Center for Health Statistics 2023 county-level classification system. Medium metropolises are metropolitan areas with between 250,000 and 1 million inhabitants.
These numbers represent overall population demographics, not individual voter preferences.
For congressional districts, The Post aggregated this data across block groups, precincts and counties within congressional districts. For areas that are part of multiple congressional districts, The Post weighted these population estimates based on the relevant 2020 block unit for each district. For example, to calculate the number of college-educated adult citizens in each district, The Post used estimates of residents over 25 as the denominator.
Independent candidates who caucus with a party are considered to represent that party. Additionally, in Senate elections in Nebraska, Idaho, and South Dakota, where state Democrats coalesced behind the independent candidate, those independent candidates are counted as Democrats for calculating shifts. Montana, which has three major candidates running, is not represented.
Aadit Tambe contributed to the development. Edited by Anu Narayanswamy, Maureen Linke and Noah Bierman.
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