- In the seven states where Republicans have redrawn congressional boundaries, the Republican Party is on track to lose as many as eight seats, rather than gaining the 15 it hoped to win.
- With two exceptions – the TX-32 and the TN-09 – the Republican-proposed mics never came to fruition.
- Then there was a bloodbath in North Carolina.
Zoom: At the heart of the Republican Party’s miscalculation was the bet that the 2026 electorate would look like the 2024 electorate. Instead, voters behaved more like they had in 2020 — or even 2018.
- TX-34: Republicans made an already Trump-friendly district significantly redder, moving it from Trump +4 to Trump +10. Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez still won by nearly 16 percentage points.
- TX-23: Republicans made an already red district slightly less Republican, moving it from Trump +16 to Trump +15. Democrat Katy Padilla Stout won by eight points.
- TX-15: Rep. Monica De La Cruz’s district remained essentially unchanged at Trump +18. She lost by 25 points.
Between the lines: The GOP’s heaviest losses were in districts in Ohio and North Carolina, which Republican mapmakers barely touched.
- Rather than consolidating districts that Trump had won by double digits, Republicans focused on restoring two Democratic-held seats in Ohio and one in North Carolina, betting they would change in a normal election year.
- But 2026 was anything but normal.
The bottom line: Perhaps the clearest example of a model — when mapmakers spread their own voters too thin in search of additional seats — came to Tennessee’s 4th District.
- Republicans redrew TN-04 from Trump +44 to Trump +24, sacrificing much of his enormous GOP cushion.
- Democrat Victoria Broderick appears to have won by just 280 votes.
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